Rumors for Milwaukee Brewers
The Reds would like to keep Votto and Phillips long term, but can they? (Part II)
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Yesterday we talked about the Reds’ intentions of keeping both Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto, and explained how much we believe Phillips should make in a long-term deal. Now its time to evaluate Votto. Tracy Ringolsby of FOXSports.com, believes that Prince Fielder’s nine-year, $214 million deal with the Tigers and Albert Pujols‘ 10-year, $254 million with the Angels will be used as benchmark in Votto’s contract talks.
In 2011, Votto hit .309/.416/.531 with 29 HR’s and 103 RBI’s. His FRAA was 14.2 and his VORP 53.2 for a 7.2 WARP, the highest number in his career. He is a career 179.4 VORP, 31.6 FRAA and 21.9 WARP in five Major League seasons and is only 28 years old.
Pujols, 32, had his worst offensive season last year since he reached the Major in 2001. In fact, it was the first time in his career that his BA was below .300 (.299) and the second time in his career that his OBP was below .400 (.366). His FRAA in 2011 was 13.5, his VORP 43.4 and his WARP 6.1, all still pretty good numbers. His career VORP is 787.7, his FRAA 121.7 and his WARP 91.2, outstanding numbers for Pujols.
Fielder on the other hand hit .299/.415/.566 with 38 HR’s and 120 RBI’s in 2011. His VORP was 51.0, his FRAA -0.8 and his WARP 5.3, the highest number in his career. His career VORP is 215.4, his FRAA -22.5 and his WARP 19.7, also good numbers. He is 27 years old.
Of the three, Pujols has been the greatest, but is also the oldest, and is coming off one of the worst season in his career (still a very solid sesason for anyone else). Votto was more valuable than Fielder in 2010 and 2011. Fielder was only superior than Votto in 2009 when he had a 4.5 WARP and Votto 4.3. Also, Votto is clearly a better defensive player than Fielder, although Pujols has been better than Votto except for the 2011 season, when Pujols had a 13.5 FRAA and Votto 14.2.
Votto’s age will play a significant role in the contract negotiations. He is already one year older than Fielder, and will be about Pujols’ age when he hits the market. I don’t think he can pull a Pujols’ style deal, after all, in his worst season, Pujols had a 6.1 WARP and in his best season Votto had a 7.2 WARP. I think Votto’s next contract could be closer to Fielder’s deal with the Tigers.
Now, nine years for Votto when he turns 30 sounds as crazy as giving Pujols ten years at age 31, but when you’re talking about Pujols you’re talking about probably the best player in the game right now. I don’t think the Reds are going to commit that many years with Votto, and if he wants that kind of contract he will probably have to look elsewhere, say the Los Angeles Dodgers? I think Votto should probably get a seven-year, $175 million deal, or an eight-year $184 million. With this I’m not saying that Fielder is a better player than Votto, but I believe that both Fielder and Pujols were overpaid by the Tigers and Angels respectively.
Image by Keith Allison under the Creative Commons License.
PRO Rumors Customer Survey
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Hi all,
With baseball season coming up, we’d like to poll our readers regarding our current features and see if you have suggestions regarding future features. We have a really short survey and we’re hoping that you can take less than 5 minutes to help us out. Thanks!
Allan
Brewers extend Jonathan Lucroy
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The Milwaukee Brewers and catcher Jonathan Lucroy have agreed to a five-year extension worth more than $11mm, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reports. The exact dollar amount hinges on whether Lucroy qualifies as a Super Two candidate.
Last season in 136 games, Lucroy posted a .265 avg, .312 OBP and .391 SLG while hitting 12 homeruns and driving in 59 runs.
Image taken by compujeramey and used under the Creative Common License Agreement.
Brewers and Marcum will wait for contract talks until after the season
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Right handed pitcher Shaun Marcum will be a free agent at the end of the season and according to Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, the Brewers “have made no move to engage Marcum in discussions about an extension.”
Brewers General Manager, Doug Melvin, said that they will probably “let him play the year out,” (via McCalvy) and I think this could be the best decision for them. Even though their ace, Zack Greinke, will also become a free agent at the end of the season, I’d still let Marcum play the year out.
The 29-year old underwent Tommy John surgery in 2008, and was bothered by elbow discomfort again in 2010. Besides that, he has been slowed by shoulder stiffness during spring, although he threw three scoreless innings against the Dodgers yesterday.
In 2011, Marcum was 13-7 with a 3.54 ERA in 200.2 innings (the first time in his career that he reaches that plateau). He also had 1.0 HR/9, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.1 SO/9, solid numbers and similar to the ones achieved in previous seasons.
In my opinion, Marcum is going to get a raise from the $7.725 million he is set to earn in 2012 just by emulating his 2011 numbers, if he stays healthy obviously. So the Brewers should see how he performs during the season, see if he can stay healthy and evaluate whether they should stay with him or Greinke, because keeping both of them will be very difficult.
Greinke is one year younger, and has pitched 487 more innings than Marcum. Also, Greinke’s HR/9 throughout his career has been 0.9 against Marcum’s 1.2. His BB/9, 2.4 against 2.7 for Marcum and the SO/9 8.0 for Greinke and 7.2 for Marcum. The differences between the two aren’t huge, but Greinke has been superior in everyone of those stats. Marcum’s VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) during the last three seasons has been 3.3, 30.1 and 26.5 respectively, and Greinke’s VORP, 70.4, 25.3 and 29.9, so he should be, without a doubt more expensive than Marcum.
After this season, the Brewers will have to face the fact that they will probably at best only be able to retain one of them. Greinke would probably look for a five-year deal, worth about $75 million, and Marcum a four-year deal worth about $48 million, or at least that’s what I think they’re worth right now. So Melvin would have to evaluate the team’s needs and budget at the end of the 1012 and see what’s best for them, but for now, letting him play the year out is the best decision.
Injury Updates: Crawford, Hart and Marcum
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Here are a few injury updates from around the league.
–Carl Crawford will probably miss Opening Day as he experienced some inflammation last week in his left wrist which he had surgery on during the offseason (Ian Browne MLB.com).
–Brewers outfielder Corey Hart will undergo surgery Tuesday to repair torn cartilage in his right knee. He will be out 3-4 weeks (Adam McCalvy MLB.com).
–Staying with the Brewers, pitcher Shaun Marcum is still bothered by stiff shoulder and will be shut down for the next 2-3 days (Adam McCalvy MLB.com).
Image taken by Steve Paluch and used under the Creative Common License Agreement.
Ryan Braun has positive drug test overturned
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In a report by Tom Haudricourt of the Journal-Sentinel, 2011 National League MVP, Ryan Braun, had his positive drug test overturned by an arbitration panel. He was originally suspended for 50-games.
Adam McCalvy of MLB.com blogged Braun’s statement after the decision was announced:
“I am very pleased and relieved by today’s decision.
“It is the first step in restoring my good name and reputation. We were able to get through this because I am innocent and the truth is on our side.
“We provided complete cooperation throughout, despite the highly unusual circumstances.
“I have been an open book, willing to share details from every aspect of my life as part of this investigation, because I have nothing to hide. I have passed over 25 drug tests in my career, including at least three in the past year.
“I would like to thank my family and friends, my teammates, the Brewers organization led by Mark Attanasio, Doug Melvin, Gord Ash and Ron Roenicke, and other players around the league who have expressed their support and our great fans in Milwaukee and around the country who stuck by me and did not rush to judgment.
“I’d also like to offer special thanks to Michael Weiner and the Players Association for believing in me since day one and to my attorneys.
“I’d like to thank my agent Nez Balelo and Terry Prince of CAA Sports and Matthew Hiltzik of Hiltzik Strategies for all of their help and counsel through the process.
“This is not just about one person, but about all current and future players, and thankfully, today the process worked.
“Despite the challenges of this adversarial process, I do appreciate the professionalism demonstrated by the Panel Chair and the Office of the Commissioner.
“As I said before, I’ve always loved and had so much respect for the game of baseball.
“Everything I’ve done in my career has been with that respect and appreciation in mind.
“I look forward to finally being able to speak to the fans and the media on Friday and then returning the focus to baseball and working with my Brewers teammates on defending our National League Central title.”
Image by Ed Bierman under the Creative Commons License.
Brewers sign Jay Gibbons
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The Milwaukee Brewers have signed Jay Gibbons to a minor league deal, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. The deal does not include an invite to Spring Training thus meaning Gibbons will report to minor league camp.
In 62 at-bats for the Dodgers last season, Gibbons posted a .255 avg and a career low slugging percentage of .345 and an OBP of .323
Image taken by Keith Allison and used under the Creative Common License Agreement.
Amnesty Clause in MLB-NL Central
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Next stop on our amnesty tour around baseball is the NL Central.
NL CENTRAL
Cubs- When you try to trade a player and no one will take him unless you pay almost all of his salary, then the amnesty clause may be the best bet for you. This is the situation the Cubs are in with Alfonso Soriano as they owe him $54mm over the next three seasons. In five seasons with the Cubs, Soriano has hit .266 while averaging 26 home runs and 73 RBIs.
Reds- The Reds had been rumored to have interest in Roy Oswalt but didn’t have the funds to sign him. So this is where having the amnesty clause would benefit them. They could amnesty Scott Rolen and his $6.5mm and turn around and used that money to sign Oswalt. Rolen has not played in more than 150 games since 2003 and was limited to 65 games last season.
Astros- The Astros who are set to move over to the AL West next year, operated under a $76mm budget last season. That was good enough for last place, a mere 40 games back (56-106). They are obviously playing for the future and have tried to trade some of their veterans including Carlos Lee. They have not been able to trade Lee because of his no trade protection and Lee’s booming cattle business near Houston. Lee is set to make $18.5mm this coming season. Using the amnesty clause on Lee would also open up first base and allow the Astros to get a look at Jonathan Singleton.
Cardinals- The Cardinals like the Reds also have shown interest in free agent pitcher Roy Oswalt but also don’t have the funds that it would take it sign him. With Kyle Lohse and his $11.875m salary, the Cardinals could use the amnesty clause to free up money to sign Oswalt. Lohse did perform well last season posting a 3.39 era, but in 2010 he posted a 6.55 era. Freeing up that amount of money could potentially allow the Cards to sign Oswalt to a multi-year deal.
Pirates- Since I used the amnesty clause on A.J. Burnett for the Yankees and Clint Barmes and his two-year $10.5mm deal is off limits since he just signed, I turned my attention to Kevin Correia and the $3mm left on his deal. Correia went 12-11 last season while posting a 4.79 era. The concerning stat was that he posted a 4.5 k/9 his lowest in his career.
Brewers- The Brewers were unable to sign Prince Fielder this past offseason because of financial reasons. If you take Randy Wolf and his $9.5mm that he is owed in ‘12 Fielder could be a Brewer again. In his two seasons with Milwaukee, Wolf has 26-22 while posting a 3.93 era while earning $18.75mm.
Image taken by Scott Abelman and used under the Creative Common License Agreement.
Prince Fielder agrees to 9-year deal with Detroit Tigers
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The Detroit Tigers and Prince Fielder have agreed to a nine-year, $214 million deal, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports.
Fielderwho hit .299 with 38 home runs and 120 RBIs last season will join Miguel Cabrera who led the majors with a .344 average and 48 doubles, 30 homers and drove in 105 runs as one of the most feared 3-4 hitters in all of the game.
Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports, first reported that the sides were nearing a nine-year deal earlier today.
Image by Ben+Sam under the Creative Commons License.
Milwaukee Brewers sign Norichika Aoki
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The Milwaukee Brewers have announced that they signed outfielder Norichika Aoki to a two-year deal with a club option for 2014.
The Brewers won the rights to negotiate with Aoki with a $2.5MM bid in December
Image by Jeramey Jannene under the Creative Commons License.
