Rumors for Los Angeles Angels
Angels release Bobby Abreu, promote Mike Trout
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The struggling Los Angeles Angels have released Bobby Abreu, Bill Shaikin of the LA Times reports.
Abreu was set to make $9mm in the final year of a three-year $27mm deal (last year was a vesting option that vested with 550 plate appearances in 2011). Abreu had recorded on five hits in 27 plate appearances this season.
In an effort to provide a spark to the entire team, the Angels promoted top prospect, outfielder Mike Trout. Trout was hitting .403/.467/.623 with five triples and six stolen bases in 77 plate appearances at Triple-A. Trout could slot anywhere in the lineup, but has the versatility and speed to step in at the top of the order. Wherever he bats, Manager Mike Scioscia notes that Trout “will play” and will play on a regular basis (via Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times).
With the Angels bullpen also struggling, one has to wonder if the Trout promotion means Peter Bourjos may be on his way out via a trade for bullpen help. At this point in time, the Angels now have an outfield consisting of Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter, Mark Trumbo, Bourjos and now Trout.
Image taken by Keith Allison and used under the Creative Common License Agreement.
Hideki Matsui expected to sign a Minor League deal with the Rays
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According to Jack Curry of YES Network, Hideki Matsui is expected to sign a Minor League deal with the Tampa Bay Rays soon. He adds that the veteran outfielder has been working out in the New York area “in hopes of continuing his career,” and the Rays are apparently going to give him a chance.
Matsui, 37, is a career .285/.363/.467 hitter with 173 HR’s, 753 RBI’s and a 120 OPS+ in 4,347 AB’s throughout nine Major League seasons with the Yankees, Angels and Athletics.
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Is there a secret to pinch-hitting?
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Baseball is definitely a game of strategies, and most of the time, the team with the better strategy wins the game. When I say strategy I don’t mean just bunting, ordering a hit and run, squeeze play, etc. The strategy begins with assembling the team. If you don’t put a good team on the field you’re not going to win.
Also, by putting a team on the field I’m not talking about spending huge amounts of cash. I’m talking about analyzing what you have on your team, what you need, and optimizing your players’ best attributes in order to win ballgames. And that last part of the strategy is what were going to take a look at.
Usually later in games, managers face the decision on whether to use a pinch-hitter, or not, in order to potentially score runs. There’s no way to know beforehand if a hitter is going to get a hit, double, home run or if he’s going to strike out when you send him up to the plate as a pinch hitter. Even if you have a guy who is 10-10 against a specific pitcher that doesn’t mean he’s going to be 11-11 after that particular AB. It only means that the odds are in his favor, but after all they are odds.
Now, there are managers and General Managers that have embraced this new philosophy about advanced stats (sabermetrics), and are using them to gain an edge in the competition. When I mean edge, I don’t mean they are always going to win, I just mean that the odds will favor them slightly more. After all they are statistics, not facts.
If I were a manager, I would use all the information available to gain an edge over my opponent. It doesn’t matter what kind of information, every piece of information can be useful, and pinch-hitting is no different. For example, to maximize the use of a pinch-hitter you could use stats, unless you want to go with the player with the hot streak, or the one with better overall numbers.
Stats that could be used for pinch-hitting could variate depending on what you’re looking for. If you want your pinch hitter to reach base at the beginning of an inning go with the player with highest OBP, but if you’re trying to drive in a run there are a number of advanced stats that might come in handy.
Baseball Prospectus presents a stat called OBI% (Others Batted In Percentage), that is “the fraction of runners on base who were driven in during a batter’s plate appearances.” This stat won’t credit a hitter when hitting a home run (OBI = RBI – HR). With this stat you know how effective a player is when driving in runs.
Now, the guys from Baseball Prospectus take this stat a little bit further to give us the R1BI%, R2BI% and R3BI%. Each one of this stats measure the percentage of runs batted in from the different bases. This stat makes a ton of sense. For example, players with high R1BI% are all sluggers, players able to drive runners from first base.
Among the leaders in this department we have Curtis Granderson, Evan Longoria, Mark Teixeira and Adrian Beltre. To understand a little bit more this stats, I’m going to compare Granderson with Victor Martinez using 2011 data.
Granderson has a career .495 SLG and Martinez .469, also Granderson has 30 home runs more than Martinez in 598 less AB’s. Martinez has 533 career strikeouts in 4,279 AB’s while Granderson has 917 strikeouts in 3,681 AB’s. Martinez has also a higher career OBP (.370) than Granderson (.345). What you can take away from these stats is that Granderson is a better slugger than Martinez, but not as versatile as him.
That’s why Granderson is more likely to drive in a runner from first base (11.2%) than Martinez (6.5%), but when you analyze the percentage of runners driven home from second base Martinez (25%) is better than Granderson (17%), and when you compare them again in R3BI% the difference between them is even bigger, 54.9% for Martinez and 39.7% for Granderson.
Now, what does this tells you as a manager? It tells me that depending on where the runner is located I would go for a slugger with a chance to bring him home from first base with one swing, or a more versatile hitter that is more likely to bring him home from second or third base. Again, this is not a fact, this is just information being used in order to maximize the use of your resources, or, using stats to unfold a better strategy.
Lastly, the make-up of a player is very important for a pinch hitter as some younger players have a hard time waiting around all game and staying ready for potentially one at bat towards the end of the game. This is why most successful bench players are older player that have been around for a bit.
Image by Keith Allison under the Creative Commons License.
Athletics claim Rich Thompson off waivers
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The Oakland Athletics have claimed right handed pitcher Rich Thompson off waivers from the Los Angeles Angels according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Thompson was designated for assignment by the Angels earlier this month.
This season, Thompson had pitched 2.1 innings while allowing five hits and four runs. Last season, Thompson went 1-3 with a 3.00 era while posting a respectable 9.3 K/9.
Image by Keith Allison under the Creative Commons License.
Angels agree to a four-year, $35 million deal with Erick Aybar
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The Los Angeles Angels have reached an agreement with shortstop Erick Aybar according to Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com. The deal is for four years and $35 million. According to Gonzalez, the announcement of the deal, is expected tomorrow and “will mark the end of at least a five-month-long negotiation between Angels general manager Jerry DiPoto and Aybar’s agent, Fernando Cuza.”
A couple of days ago, we said that the best deal the Angels could strike with Aybar was a deal similar to the one the team gave to second baseman Howie Kendrick for four years and $33.5 million.
Aybar is a career .275/.318/.378 hitter with 24 HR’s, 210 RBI’s and a 89 OPS+ in seven years. His career WARP is 8.4 and his FRAA 2.2.
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Was Chris Iannetta’s addition to the Angels smarter than Pujols’ addition
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Much has been said about Albert Pujols‘ addition to the Angels, and everybody knows that it was a risky move for Angels owner, Arte Moreno. Because Pujols will eventually decline, if it hasn’t started yet, and having a 40-year old player earning more than $20 million sounds like a bad business decision. The best they can hope for is that Pujols’ decline doesn’t start anytime soon and that when it does, its not that steep.
Now, besides Pujols, the Angels added another everyday player to their team, catcher Chris Iannetta. His addition pretty much went unnoticed with all the hype generated after Pujols’ and C.J. Wilson’s signing this off season.
But given the team the Angels had in 2011, and forgetting about the truck full of money the Angels gave Pujols, or the start of the season he is having compared to Iannatta, who was a better fit for the Angels?
The answer is easy, but it might sound crazy to most of you. The best fit for the Angels was Iannetta, but why do I say that? Well, I took the liberty to do some math to prove that what I’m saying its true. The math might not be perfect or even close to the work done by Bill James or SABER experts, but I think its valid.
When you add a position player to you team, you’re replacing AB’s and defensive innings given to another player in previous years. In this case, we’ll assume that Iannetta is replacing Jeff Mathis‘ AB’s and defensive innings, while Pujols is replacing AB’s from Alberto Callaspo, Mark Trumbo, Kendry Morales and Bobby Abreu. I say that, because the playing time for all those players was affected with Pujols’ addition to the team, specially for Abreu.
Now, to compare the player contribution to the team’s offense we’re going to use the OPS+ stat. Which is the sum of OBP (On-Base Percentage) and SLG (Slugging Percentage), but adjusted to park and league effects.
Last season, Mathis had an OPS+ of 37 in 93 games, while Iannetta had a 102 OPS+ in 112 games with the Rockies. This means a 65 points difference between both catchers in OPS+, a considerable difference if you ask me. Defensively, Mathis had a 0.3 FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average) and Iannetta a -0.1 FRAA, but Mathis’ VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) was -8.2 while Iannatta’s was 23.8, another big difference between the two. After analyzing these numbers you can conclude that the Angels definitely improved their team by adding Iannetta. They will probably add 65 more points in OPS+ and around 32 runs to their offense by the end of the season with this trade (using last season’s numbers).
To analyze Pujols addition I did something, a little bit crazy. Since he isn’t replacing just one player like Iannetta, I decided to create a player with the OPS+ of Callaspo, Abreu, Morales and Trumbo, the players who will be affected, somehow, by the addition of Pujols. I won’t create the player trying to guess how much playing time of each one of these players will be affected, I’m just going to assume they are all worth the same. I’m also going to use Morales’ 2009 OPS+ because it was his last complete season in the Majors.
If we add the OPS+ of those four players and calculate a simple average, we get a fictional player with a 117 OPS+. That fictional player is the player Pujols will be replacing in the Angels lineup. Pujols’ OPS+ in 2011 was 150, a big number, and obviously higher than Iannetta’s OPS+, but only 33 points higher than the simple average of the players he is replacing. This means only half of the production Ianneta is adding to the Angels lineup above what they had in 2011 when Mathis was behind the plate most of the time.
If you want to take defense into account this is what you get. Given the fact that Trumbo was the Angels everyday first baseman in 2011, I’m going to compare Pujols’ FRAA with Trumbo’s FRAA only. In 2011, Trumbo had a 1.9 FRAA while Pujols 13.5. This is the only department where Pujols addition might be a big improvement from what the Angels already had, but lets face it, Pujols was brought to Anaheim to hit, not to defend first base better than Trumbo, and you don’t pay that kind of money for defense only.
By adding the VORP to the equation, Iannetta’s addition to the team proves once again, to be more valuable than Pujols’ addition. Pujols’ VORP in 2011 was 43.4 (his lowest mark in his career), while the VORP for the player we created is 24.9. Pujols represents 18.6 more runs for the Angels compared to the other four players, but Iannetta represents 32 more runs than Mathis for the team. Again, Iannetta represents a bigger improvement to the Angels than Pujols.
Considering what the Angels paid to get Pujols ($240 million over 10 years) and what the Angels paid to get Iannetta (they gave up Tyler Chatwood, and are paying $3.6 million in 2012), and what is their marginal contribution to the team, there’s no room for discussion that Iannetta’s addition was more important than Pujols’ addition.
By the way, I’m not saying that the Angels shouldn’t have signed Pujols, if you have the chance, and the money to improve your team, do it. And Pujols is obviously an offensive and defensive improvement of what the Angels had in 2011.
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Erick Aybar is looking for at least a five-year, $50 million deal
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Last week, we learned that the Angels were making progress towards a new deal with shortstop Erick Aybar. Today, Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times says that Aybar is believed to be looking for at least five years and $50 million.
Even though the Angels “would prefer to sign Aybar for something closer to the four-year, $33.5-million deal” as DiGiovanna says, both “parts appear to be moving toward an agreement.”
“Erick wants to be an Angel, we want Erick to be an Angel, and I feel very confident we’ll be able to work something out,” GM Jerry DiPoto said. “We’ve made progress. I’m very encouraged by where we are and that we will ultimately get there.”
According to DiGiovanna, DiPoto was asked if Ian Kinsler’s recent deal with the Rangers and Brandon Phillips‘ deal with the Reds would affect Aybar’s negotiations and he said no. “I don’t think so. Erick is Erick. Every player is an entity unto themselves, and I think Erick understands that.”
The Angels should not give Aybar a Kinsler-type deal. Kinsler has a career 114 OPS+ while Aybar has a 89 OPS+. Besides that, while Aybar has accumulated 8.4 WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) from 2009 to 2011, Kinsler has accumulated a 15 WARP.
A Phillips-type deal could be a little bit closer to him although I don’t think the Angels should go that far. The difference between their OPS+ is just seven points (96 Phillips and 89 Aybar) throughout their careers. The Reds second baseman also has a higher career OBP (.321) than Aybar (.318) and SLG (.433 for Phillips and .378 for Aybar). In the HR’s department there’s no competition, Phillips has 130 HR’s throughout an eleven year career and Aybar has just 24 HR’s in seven years. Where Aybar has an advantage point against Phillips is in the defensive department. Aybar’s FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average) is 2.2 and Phillips’ FRAA is -12.4.
I believe the Indians got a bargain by signing Asdrubal Cabrera to a two-year $16.5 million deal, and he and Aybar could be compared somehow and determine how much more should Aybar make. While Cabrera is two years younger and has proven to be a better hitter, Aybar is definitely a better defensive shortstop than Cabrera. Cabrera is a career .281/.342/.415 hitter with a 107 OPS+ and Aybar is a career .275/.318/.378 hitter with a 89 OPS+. But Cabrera has a career -13.3 FRAA and Aybar 2.2. Also, Aybar has accumulated a 8.4 WARP in the last three seasons and Cabrera 7.
The best deal the Angels could strike for Aybar could be one similar to the one they gave Howie Kendrick for four years and $33.5 million. Kendrick, a career .293/.330/.435 hitter with 51 HR’s and a 105 OPS+ is a better hitter than Aybar. Defensively, Kendrick is a career 5.3 FRAA, also better than Aybar, although you can’t trust that number too much. Remember that Aybar is a short stop and Kendrick a second baseman. Kendricks career WARP is 11.9 and Aybar’s career WARP is 9.5, both have the same age and debuted in the majors the same season.
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Angels designate Rich Thompson
Posted by: | CommentsThe Los Angeles Angels have designated Rich Thompson for assignment, MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez reports. The move creates space for Brad Mills who was called-up today and is with the team in New York.
This season, Thompson had pitched 2 1/3 innings while allowing five hits and four runs. Last season, Thompson went 1-3 with a 3.00 era while posting a respectable 9.3 K/9.
Mills came to the Angels from the Blue Jays via the Jeff Mathis trade and was the Jays’ fourth round pick in 2007.
He has pitched in parts of the last three seasons for the Jays posting a 8.57 ERA.
Image taken by Keith Allison and used under the Creative Common License Agreement.
Angels making progress on extension with Erick Aybar
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Angels General Manager, Jerry DiPoto, said today that they are “making progress” on an extension for short stop Erick Aybar according to Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.
“I’m very confident that we’ll be able to get something done,” he said. “Erick wants to be here. It’s just a matter of winding up a deal that works for both sides. (The negotiations) have been going on since December. It’s never been contentious. It’s always been an open discussion. It’s ongoing.”
“Over the course of the winter we’ve had a lot of additions, quite a few things on the docket,” Dipoto added. “Not to say that Erick was item of importance No. 6. But he understood there was a lot going on. He’s been great about it.”
Aybar is a career .275/.318/.379 hitter with 24 HR’s and 210 RBI’s in 2,397 AB’s through seven years with the Angels. His career VORP is 89.1, his FRAA 2.2 and his WARP 9.5.
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Injury updates: Storen, Kohn, Wright and Baker
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Here’s a running list of injury updates around the Major Leagues:
– Right hander Drew Storen underwent minor elbow surgery yesterday to remove bone fragment from his elbow reports Bill Ladson of MLB.com.
– According to Mark Saxon of ESPNLA.com right handed pitcher Michael Kohn will undergo Tommy John surgery. He adds that Dr. James Andrews will perform the surgery in Florida.
– Mets manager, Terry Collins, says that David Wright could return to the lineup this Friday according to Andy Martino of the New York Daily News. “I’m not a doctor, and I don’t mean to step on their toes,” said Collins. “But when they gave us a final diagnosis of the whole thing, my gut is you’ll see him (play) Friday.”
– Right handed pitcher Scott Baker will undergo elbow surgery to repair flexor pronator tendon and will miss the remainder of the 2012 season according to Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com.
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