Rumors for Cincinnati Reds
PRO Rumors 2012 Predictions
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The sweetest time of the year has come upon us with the start of Major League Baseball. We hope that you all take time to visit your favorite ballpark in the coming days (we know we will).
In the spirit of predicting the future, here are PRO Rumors’ 2012 predictions:
| Writer | National League West |
| Allan | Rockies |
| Ryan | Diamondbacks |
| Juan | Giants |
| Writer | National League Central |
| Allan | Cardinals |
| Ryan | Brewers |
| Juan | Reds |
| Writer | National League East |
| Allan | Marlins |
| Ryan | Phillies |
| Juan | Phillies |
| Writer | NL Wild Card |
| Allan | Dodgers, Reds |
| Ryan | Giants, Marlins |
| Juan | Rockies, Braves |
| Writer | American League West |
| Allan | Athletics |
| Ryan | Angels |
| Juan | Angels |
| Writer | American League Central |
| Allan | White Sox |
| Ryan | Tigers |
| Juan | Tigers |
| Writer | American League East |
| Allan | Red Sox |
| Ryan | Yankees |
| Juan | Yankees |
| Writer | AL Wild Card |
| Allan | Rays, Yankees |
| Ryan | Red Sox, Rangers |
| Juan | Rays, Rangers |
| Writer | MVP (NL, AL) |
| Allan | Buster Posey, Alex Rodriguez |
| Ryan | Joey Votto, Albert Pujols |
| Juan | Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera |
| Writer | Cy Young (NL, AL) |
| Allan | CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay |
| Ryan | Josh Johnson, Justin Verlander |
| Juan | Matt Cain, Felix Hernandez |
| Writer | RoY (NL, AL) |
| Allan | Bryce Harper, Yu Darvish |
| Ryan | Devin Mesoraco, Yu Darvish |
| Juan | Bryce Harper, Yoenis Cespedes |
Do you agree? Disagree? Leave a comment and let us know what you think.
Image by Sean Winters under the Creative Commons License.
Joey Votto and Cincinnati Reds agree to 10-year $225 million extension
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The Cincinnati Reds and first baseman Joey Votto have agree to a 10-year $225 million extension, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. The deal includes a full no-trade clause and will start for the 2014 season. The deal will keep Votto in a Reds uniform through 2023.
In 2011, Votto hit .309/.416/.531 with 29 HR’s and 103 RBI’s. His FRAA was 14.2 and his VORP 53.2 for a 7.2 WARP, the highest number in his career. He is a career 179.4 VORP, 31.6 FRAA and 21.9 WARP in five Major League seasons and is only 28 years old.
Image by Keith Allison under the Creative Commons License.
Braves acquire Juan Francisco from Reds
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The Atlanta Braves have acquired Juan Francisco from the Cincinnati Reds for J.J. Hoover, according to a team press release.
Francisco has made brief appearances the last three seasons for the Reds. In three seasons, he has appeared in 83 games combined while totaling 181 at-bats. During that span in the Majors, he posted a .284 avg, .289 OBP and .450 SLG while hitting 5 home runs, 48 hits and striking out 51 times.
This Spring, Francisco has struggled posting a .196 avg in 51 at-bats. Francisco did miss some time this Spring as he was recovering from a strained right calf muscle.
Hoover who will report to the Reds’ Triple-A affiliate, split time between Double-A and Triple-A last season and posted a 2.64 era.
In 4.1 innings this Spring, Hoover allowed 1 run on 3 hits but walked 5 batters while only striking out 2.
Image taken by David Berkowitz and used under the Creative Common License Agreement.
The Reds would like to keep Votto and Phillips long term, but can they? (Part II)
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Yesterday we talked about the Reds’ intentions of keeping both Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto, and explained how much we believe Phillips should make in a long-term deal. Now its time to evaluate Votto. Tracy Ringolsby of FOXSports.com, believes that Prince Fielder’s nine-year, $214 million deal with the Tigers and Albert Pujols‘ 10-year, $254 million with the Angels will be used as benchmark in Votto’s contract talks.
In 2011, Votto hit .309/.416/.531 with 29 HR’s and 103 RBI’s. His FRAA was 14.2 and his VORP 53.2 for a 7.2 WARP, the highest number in his career. He is a career 179.4 VORP, 31.6 FRAA and 21.9 WARP in five Major League seasons and is only 28 years old.
Pujols, 32, had his worst offensive season last year since he reached the Major in 2001. In fact, it was the first time in his career that his BA was below .300 (.299) and the second time in his career that his OBP was below .400 (.366). His FRAA in 2011 was 13.5, his VORP 43.4 and his WARP 6.1, all still pretty good numbers. His career VORP is 787.7, his FRAA 121.7 and his WARP 91.2, outstanding numbers for Pujols.
Fielder on the other hand hit .299/.415/.566 with 38 HR’s and 120 RBI’s in 2011. His VORP was 51.0, his FRAA -0.8 and his WARP 5.3, the highest number in his career. His career VORP is 215.4, his FRAA -22.5 and his WARP 19.7, also good numbers. He is 27 years old.
Of the three, Pujols has been the greatest, but is also the oldest, and is coming off one of the worst season in his career (still a very solid sesason for anyone else). Votto was more valuable than Fielder in 2010 and 2011. Fielder was only superior than Votto in 2009 when he had a 4.5 WARP and Votto 4.3. Also, Votto is clearly a better defensive player than Fielder, although Pujols has been better than Votto except for the 2011 season, when Pujols had a 13.5 FRAA and Votto 14.2.
Votto’s age will play a significant role in the contract negotiations. He is already one year older than Fielder, and will be about Pujols’ age when he hits the market. I don’t think he can pull a Pujols’ style deal, after all, in his worst season, Pujols had a 6.1 WARP and in his best season Votto had a 7.2 WARP. I think Votto’s next contract could be closer to Fielder’s deal with the Tigers.
Now, nine years for Votto when he turns 30 sounds as crazy as giving Pujols ten years at age 31, but when you’re talking about Pujols you’re talking about probably the best player in the game right now. I don’t think the Reds are going to commit that many years with Votto, and if he wants that kind of contract he will probably have to look elsewhere, say the Los Angeles Dodgers? I think Votto should probably get a seven-year, $175 million deal, or an eight-year $184 million. With this I’m not saying that Fielder is a better player than Votto, but I believe that both Fielder and Pujols were overpaid by the Tigers and Angels respectively.
Image by Keith Allison under the Creative Commons License.
PRO Rumors Customer Survey
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Hi all,
With baseball season coming up, we’d like to poll our readers regarding our current features and see if you have suggestions regarding future features. We have a really short survey and we’re hoping that you can take less than 5 minutes to help us out. Thanks!
Allan
The Reds would like to keep Votto and Phillips long term, but can they? (Part I)
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Two of the best players on the Reds Major League roster, Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto are under team control for two and three more years respectively. Obviously General Manager, Walt Jocketty, would like to keep them both beyond that point but can he?
According to Tracy Ringolsby of FOXSports, Jocketty “has been involved in talks to try to sign both players to multi-year deals this spring,” but we all know that isn’t going to be easy. “I think we are making progress, but we are not close to anything,” Jocketty says. “We will see what happens in the next week or so.”
Phillips, who will make $12 million in 2012, is eligible for free agency after the season. The 30-year old hit .300/.353/.457 with 18 HR’s and 82 RBI’s in 610 at-bats last season. He is a career -12.4 FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average), but his offensive value has been going up since 2008, 17.1 in 2008, 19.8 in 2009, 26.0 in 2010 and 38.0 in 2011.
Ringolsby says that Dan Uggla’s five-year, $62 deal and Chase Utley’s seven-year, $85 million deal were brought in as benchmarks during his negotiations. Uggla hit .233/.311/.453 with 36 HR’s and 82 RBI’s in 600 AB’s last season. He is a career -8.0 FRAA and his VORP has been above 25.0 throughout his entire career, achieving in 2011 his lower mark (26.3) and his highest mark in 2010 (51.7).
Utley could be considered the best among the three, but recent injuries has brought down his value. In 2011, Utley hit .259/.344/.425 with 11 HR’s and 44 RBI’s in 398 AB’s. He also missed more than 50 games due to injuries. His career FRAA is 30.8, which makes him a great second baseman and definitely the best defensive second baseman among the three. The downside, his VORP has been going down since 2009 and one has to wonder if his health has something to do with it. In 2009 Utley achieved his highest VORP at 55.4, then it dropped to 40.1 in 2010 and in 2011 his VORP was 18.7.
The most valuable second baseman in 2011 among Phillips, Uggla and Utley was Phillips, who had a 3.3 WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player), then Utley with a 2.9 WARP and then Uggla with a 2.4 WARP. Both Uggla and Phillips have shown good health throughout their career, but Uggla has been more valuable. Actually Uggla’s WARP has been higher than Phillips’ WARP in every one of Uggla’s seasons except for two, 2011 and 2007.
My opinion, Phillips should get a contract similar to the one Uggla got from the Braves last year. I wouldn’t go above five-years, like the Phillies did with Utley, and I wouldn’t give him more than $65 million either.
Image by Keith Allison under the Creative Commons License.
Right hander Jon Hunton is looking for new representation
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Jon Hunton who was the closer of the year in Venezuela,reached out to PRO Rumors earlier this week and explained that he is looking for new representation. Hunton, 29, had a strong 2011 season both in the summer and the winter leagues respectively.
As part of the Grand Prairie AirHogs (The American Association of Independent Professional Basebal) Hunton was named “Reliever of the Year” in 2011 (link here). Hunton went 7-2 with a 1.77 ERA, 25 saves, 47 SO, 0.4 HR/9, 3.5 BB/9 and 8.3 SO/9 in 51.0 innings.
During the winter, Hunton was named “Closer for the Year” again (link here), but this time in Venezuela as part of the Caribes de Anzoategui. He was 2-4 with 3.16 ERA, 18 saves, 0.3 HR/9, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.0 SO/9 in 31.1 games. Then he was selected as a replacement for Tiburones de la Guaira in the Final and was Francisco Rodriguez’s setup man. He also represented Venezuela in the Caribbean Series .
While Hunton was in Venezuela he left a great impression among the other teams, players and the media. He was one of the first foreign players to report and stayed until the last game of the Caribbean Series, his commitment with the Caribes organization and the rest of the league was undeniable.
I had the opportunity to watch Hunton pitch in Venezuela at least a dozen times this winter. The first thing you notice about him is his height, Hunton is 6′9” with a fluid delivery. He’s not a flame thrower, but he will keep hitters off balance with his slider, which has nice movement. Also, his 3/4 delivery makes all of his pitches move. I believe he is a great athlete in good physical condition (he used to play basketball in College), he is also a strong competitor and he definitely showed that in Venezuela.
Most of you don’t have an idea of how hard it is to pitch in winter ball. Fans are harsh with their players and they will let you know when you’re not doing your job right. You have to face strong competitors, not only young Minor Leaguers, but also Major Leaguers as well. There’s also a lot of competitiveness here but Hunton cruised throughout the season without a sweat. This league has chewed up and spit out countless top MLB prospects, but Hunton wasn’t one of them.
Hunton was drafted five times during the June Amateur Draft, the last one in 2004 by the Chicago Cubs in the eleventh round. During his eight years as a professional player Hunton is a career 34-27 with 3.18 ERA, 0.5 HR/9, 4.0 BB/9 and 8.9 SO/9 in 453.1 innings. In 2010, he was 6-6 with a 3.57 ERA, 0.7 HR/9, 3.6 BB/9 and 5.7 SO/9 in 63.0 innings for the A’s Triple-A team.
last offseason we had a Q & A with Hunton. Make sure to check that out if you haven’t.
Having the right representation can sometimes be the key to getting that tryout or invite to Spring Training that can open the door to a big league career. If you wish to contact Hunton you can write or follow him on Twitter (@Big_Jon_Hunton).
Image by Edixon Gamez of LiderEnDeportes.com.
Ryan Madson will miss entire 2012 season
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Reds closer Ryan Madson will miss the entire 2012 season with a torn ligament in his pitching elbow which will require Tommy John surgery, John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports.
Madson signed a one-year $8.5mm deal with the Reds after his four-year $44mm deal with the Phillies fell through.
Sean Marshall who was acquired from the Cubs this offseason, appears set to take over the closer role for the Reds. In six seasons all with the Cubs as a starter and a bullpen arm, Marshall posted a 3.96 ERA, 7.5 k/9 and 3.2 b/9.
The 31-year-old right-handed closer has pitched his entire nine-year career with the Philadelphia Phillies . He had his best year in 2011 when he had 32 saves and a 2.37 ERA in 62 relief appearances.
Image taken by Shannon Lamond and used under the Creative Common License Agreement.
Could the Cuban Missile Crisis be blamed on a baseball scout?
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We all know what the Cuban Missile Crisis was, and how the world lived in fear during those days, when the world was on the brink of nuclear war. But could a Washington Senators’ scout be responsible for this?
Well, apparently the famous scout Joe Cambria, who was known for his trips to Cuba to sign amateur players for his organization rejected, not once, but twice, a pitcher named Fidel Castro. Yes, the same Fidel who in 1959 overthrew Fulgencio Batista’s government and established a communist dictatorship in Cuba.
It is hard to imagine Castro as a Major Leaguer, but it would have saved the world a lot of trouble if Cambria would have given him a Major League contract, at least for a couple of year. Some people say that it is a folk tale and that Cambria never rejected Castro, but if it was true we can assume that indeed Cambria is responsible for the Cuban Missile Crisis (not that he could have foreseen that Castro was going to become one of the worst dictators in history).
Now, lets do a mental exercise and imagine that Cambria and Castro did meet and Cambria signed Castro to a Major League deal. If so, maybe Castro could have become an average Major Leaguer instead of a megalomaniac dictator. Historically speaking, this could of have had an enormous impact on the history books.
The Cuban Missile Crisis, and Bay of Pigs would have probably never existed and the most important for me, Hugo Chavez wouldn’t have had a mentor and a role model in Castro. So Chavez would still be either in jail or retired in some hacienda breeding cows. Instead of giving away our gas to countries like Cuba, Iran, Bolivia, Ecuador and supporting communist dictatorships all around the globe.
Baseball speaking, this could have had repercussions as well. First, Cuban players wouldn’t have to defect from their countries in order to become Major Leaguers and second, there wouldn’t be such mysticism and hype around them. The good players would go to the States at younger ages and develop like the rest of the Latin American players, and the not so good ones would stay in Cuba and play their local professional baseball league.
Also, players like Yonder Alonso, Aroldis Chapman, Alexei Ramirez and Yoenis Cespedes would have been discovered earlier in their careers, and with better developing I’m pretty sure that they could have become better players than they could ever be as defectors.
So if the stories are correct, Cambria rejecting Castro was a huge world-changing event. Actually, the kind of event that you see in time-travel movies, where the slightest change in the past totally rewrites the future. So if one of you have a Delorean with a Flux Capacitor please lend it to me so I can talk to Cambria and tell him to sign Castro.
Reds extend Sean Marshall
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Back in December, the Reds acquired Sean Marshall from the Cubs for Travis Wood, outfielder Dave Sappelt and infielder Ronald Torreyes.
Without throwing a pitch for the Reds, they signed him to a three-year extension worth $16.5mm, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports. The deal also includes an extra $1mm in bonuses for games started and $1mm in games finished.
Marshall will make $4.5mm in ‘13, $5.5mm in ‘14 and $6.5mm in ‘15.
In six seasons all with the Cubs as a starter and a bullpen arm, Marshall posted a 3.96 ERA, 7.5 k/9 and 3.2 b/9.
Image taken by terren in Virgina and used under the Creative Common License Agreement.
