Rumors for blog
Jamie Moyer becomes the oldest player to win a Major League game
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Left handed pitcher- probably the guy who invented left handed pitching- Jamie Moyer, last night at 49 years and 170 days became the oldest pitcher to win a Major League game. The eternal hurler cruised through seven innings allowing two unearned runs and six hits last night against the Padres. He also struck out one batter and walked two.
Before the season began, we wrote an article filled with fun facts about Moyer, and talked about how great it would be to see him pitch again in the Majors at age 49 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, a surgical procedure that was first performed when Moyer was already 12 years old.
To add some more facts about Moyer, Buster Olney of ESPN tweeted that the left hander is just “five degrees” away of Baby Ruth. Here’s how it goes:
– Moyer made his Major League debut against Steve Carlton, who’s 67 right now.
– Carlton made his Major League debut against Larry Jackson.
– Jackson made his Major League debut against Hank Sauer.
– Sauer made Major League his debut against Paul Waner, who played his first series in 1927 against Ruth.
He also said that former Major Leaguer, Bryce Florie emailed him to say that “Jamie Moyer is the new Chuck Norris.”
Again, thank you Mr. Moyer for being so awesome and showing us that nothing can stop you when you work hard to achieve your goals.
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Was Chris Iannetta’s addition to the Angels smarter than Pujols’ addition
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Much has been said about Albert Pujols‘ addition to the Angels, and everybody knows that it was a risky move for Angels owner, Arte Moreno. Because Pujols will eventually decline, if it hasn’t started yet, and having a 40-year old player earning more than $20 million sounds like a bad business decision. The best they can hope for is that Pujols’ decline doesn’t start anytime soon and that when it does, its not that steep.
Now, besides Pujols, the Angels added another everyday player to their team, catcher Chris Iannetta. His addition pretty much went unnoticed with all the hype generated after Pujols’ and C.J. Wilson’s signing this off season.
But given the team the Angels had in 2011, and forgetting about the truck full of money the Angels gave Pujols, or the start of the season he is having compared to Iannatta, who was a better fit for the Angels?
The answer is easy, but it might sound crazy to most of you. The best fit for the Angels was Iannetta, but why do I say that? Well, I took the liberty to do some math to prove that what I’m saying its true. The math might not be perfect or even close to the work done by Bill James or SABER experts, but I think its valid.
When you add a position player to you team, you’re replacing AB’s and defensive innings given to another player in previous years. In this case, we’ll assume that Iannetta is replacing Jeff Mathis‘ AB’s and defensive innings, while Pujols is replacing AB’s from Alberto Callaspo, Mark Trumbo, Kendry Morales and Bobby Abreu. I say that, because the playing time for all those players was affected with Pujols’ addition to the team, specially for Abreu.
Now, to compare the player contribution to the team’s offense we’re going to use the OPS+ stat. Which is the sum of OBP (On-Base Percentage) and SLG (Slugging Percentage), but adjusted to park and league effects.
Last season, Mathis had an OPS+ of 37 in 93 games, while Iannetta had a 102 OPS+ in 112 games with the Rockies. This means a 65 points difference between both catchers in OPS+, a considerable difference if you ask me. Defensively, Mathis had a 0.3 FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average) and Iannetta a -0.1 FRAA, but Mathis’ VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) was -8.2 while Iannatta’s was 23.8, another big difference between the two. After analyzing these numbers you can conclude that the Angels definitely improved their team by adding Iannetta. They will probably add 65 more points in OPS+ and around 32 runs to their offense by the end of the season with this trade (using last season’s numbers).
To analyze Pujols addition I did something, a little bit crazy. Since he isn’t replacing just one player like Iannetta, I decided to create a player with the OPS+ of Callaspo, Abreu, Morales and Trumbo, the players who will be affected, somehow, by the addition of Pujols. I won’t create the player trying to guess how much playing time of each one of these players will be affected, I’m just going to assume they are all worth the same. I’m also going to use Morales’ 2009 OPS+ because it was his last complete season in the Majors.
If we add the OPS+ of those four players and calculate a simple average, we get a fictional player with a 117 OPS+. That fictional player is the player Pujols will be replacing in the Angels lineup. Pujols’ OPS+ in 2011 was 150, a big number, and obviously higher than Iannetta’s OPS+, but only 33 points higher than the simple average of the players he is replacing. This means only half of the production Ianneta is adding to the Angels lineup above what they had in 2011 when Mathis was behind the plate most of the time.
If you want to take defense into account this is what you get. Given the fact that Trumbo was the Angels everyday first baseman in 2011, I’m going to compare Pujols’ FRAA with Trumbo’s FRAA only. In 2011, Trumbo had a 1.9 FRAA while Pujols 13.5. This is the only department where Pujols addition might be a big improvement from what the Angels already had, but lets face it, Pujols was brought to Anaheim to hit, not to defend first base better than Trumbo, and you don’t pay that kind of money for defense only.
By adding the VORP to the equation, Iannetta’s addition to the team proves once again, to be more valuable than Pujols’ addition. Pujols’ VORP in 2011 was 43.4 (his lowest mark in his career), while the VORP for the player we created is 24.9. Pujols represents 18.6 more runs for the Angels compared to the other four players, but Iannetta represents 32 more runs than Mathis for the team. Again, Iannetta represents a bigger improvement to the Angels than Pujols.
Considering what the Angels paid to get Pujols ($240 million over 10 years) and what the Angels paid to get Iannetta (they gave up Tyler Chatwood, and are paying $3.6 million in 2012), and what is their marginal contribution to the team, there’s no room for discussion that Iannetta’s addition was more important than Pujols’ addition.
By the way, I’m not saying that the Angels shouldn’t have signed Pujols, if you have the chance, and the money to improve your team, do it. And Pujols is obviously an offensive and defensive improvement of what the Angels had in 2011.
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Erick Aybar is looking for at least a five-year, $50 million deal
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Last week, we learned that the Angels were making progress towards a new deal with shortstop Erick Aybar. Today, Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times says that Aybar is believed to be looking for at least five years and $50 million.
Even though the Angels “would prefer to sign Aybar for something closer to the four-year, $33.5-million deal” as DiGiovanna says, both “parts appear to be moving toward an agreement.”
“Erick wants to be an Angel, we want Erick to be an Angel, and I feel very confident we’ll be able to work something out,” GM Jerry DiPoto said. “We’ve made progress. I’m very encouraged by where we are and that we will ultimately get there.”
According to DiGiovanna, DiPoto was asked if Ian Kinsler’s recent deal with the Rangers and Brandon Phillips‘ deal with the Reds would affect Aybar’s negotiations and he said no. “I don’t think so. Erick is Erick. Every player is an entity unto themselves, and I think Erick understands that.”
The Angels should not give Aybar a Kinsler-type deal. Kinsler has a career 114 OPS+ while Aybar has a 89 OPS+. Besides that, while Aybar has accumulated 8.4 WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) from 2009 to 2011, Kinsler has accumulated a 15 WARP.
A Phillips-type deal could be a little bit closer to him although I don’t think the Angels should go that far. The difference between their OPS+ is just seven points (96 Phillips and 89 Aybar) throughout their careers. The Reds second baseman also has a higher career OBP (.321) than Aybar (.318) and SLG (.433 for Phillips and .378 for Aybar). In the HR’s department there’s no competition, Phillips has 130 HR’s throughout an eleven year career and Aybar has just 24 HR’s in seven years. Where Aybar has an advantage point against Phillips is in the defensive department. Aybar’s FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average) is 2.2 and Phillips’ FRAA is -12.4.
I believe the Indians got a bargain by signing Asdrubal Cabrera to a two-year $16.5 million deal, and he and Aybar could be compared somehow and determine how much more should Aybar make. While Cabrera is two years younger and has proven to be a better hitter, Aybar is definitely a better defensive shortstop than Cabrera. Cabrera is a career .281/.342/.415 hitter with a 107 OPS+ and Aybar is a career .275/.318/.378 hitter with a 89 OPS+. But Cabrera has a career -13.3 FRAA and Aybar 2.2. Also, Aybar has accumulated a 8.4 WARP in the last three seasons and Cabrera 7.
The best deal the Angels could strike for Aybar could be one similar to the one they gave Howie Kendrick for four years and $33.5 million. Kendrick, a career .293/.330/.435 hitter with 51 HR’s and a 105 OPS+ is a better hitter than Aybar. Defensively, Kendrick is a career 5.3 FRAA, also better than Aybar, although you can’t trust that number too much. Remember that Aybar is a short stop and Kendrick a second baseman. Kendricks career WARP is 11.9 and Aybar’s career WARP is 9.5, both have the same age and debuted in the majors the same season.
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Should the Mets retain David Wright after the 2012 season?
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I’m sure that three years ago we wouldn’t even address this question about third baseman David Wright. Three years ago the Mets would have tried to lock him up with another long-term deal and make sure that the Mets jersey was the only one Wright would ever wear as a baseball player. But as the years go by, one has to ask if the Mets should really keep him around past this season.
Last season was a complicated one for Wright. Not only was it his worst season with the bat, hitting .254/.345/.427 with 14 HR’s and 61 RBI’s in 389 AB’s but also his worst defensive season, achieving a -11.4 FRAA at third base. On top of that, Wright suffered a stress fracture on his back that forced him to miss 58 games.
Now in 2012, after just one week of regular season Wright suffered another injury, this time a fractured right pinkie. And even though he was off to a good start, hitting .583/.647/.833 with 1 HR in 12 AB’s, one has to ask if his durability could keep him from earning another long-term deal with the Mets.
As Andy Martino of the New York Daily News points out, one of the reasons why the Mets haven’t begun to discuss another long-term deal with Wright is that they “want to be sure that the 29-year-old is not entering an injury-prone phase of his career.” This injury doesn’t look bad, and he won’t need a DL stint, but this injury is definitely playing against him, even though he has been durable throughout his career.
Another reason would be the stiff competition the Mets will face in the upcoming years. The NL East appears to be a lock for at least a couple of more years with the Phillies, at least in my opinion. Besides that, teams like the Braves, Nationals and Marlins have proven to be committed to compete as well. And even though there’s one more Wild Card to hope for and they already locked up Jon Niese for five years, the Mets should also evaluate the possibility of going into a full rebuild mode. They have a young nucleus of players such as Ike Davis, Dillon Gee, Josh Thole, Lucas Duda, Ruben Tejada and Niese among others to rebuild a team around with.
Also, the Mets still have Johan Santana and Jason Bay for at least one more season, and unless Santana shows signs of a miraculously recovery nobody would take a $25 million starter that has pitched 10 innings in the past two seasons. Not to mention an $18.12 million outfielder who has hit .249/.335/.382 with 18 HR’s since he joined the Mets in 2010. So to think that they could trade either of them for something valuable for the organization seems unlikely.
In my opinion, the Mets should let Wright play out the season and see what happens with Santana, who is off to a good start, and Bay, who is off to a slow start, and decide whether they have the chance to compete next year, because they have no expectations for this season according to Martino. And if Wright proves that he’s not entering an “injury-prone phase” of his career, and they decide to make a push for the playoffs as soon as next season, then they should consider locking Wright again to keep him as the face of the franchise.
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Is David Robertson the most dominate reliever in the league right now?
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I know that the season is just beginning,and that players are just beginning to get the feel for the game again, but what I saw from David Robertson yesterday definitely blew my mind.
Even though he only pitched one inning and struck only one hitter and walked one, I could see how every hitter looked helpless when facing him. His pitch location was perfect and his fastball was electric, that thing exploded before reaching home. Also, his movement looked incredibly fluid and his poise was just perfect.
After watching that display of absolute dominance, I remembered an article I read last year about how Robertson is the pitcher, or at least last year, who releases the ball closest to home plate in the Majors. That makes the ball appear faster than it actually is, so if the pitch is 92 MPH the hitter sees it at 94, 95 MPH and that keeps them off-pace.
To see how that could affect hitters, I decided to look at the SO/9 stat and see how good he is compared to other dominant relievers. The SO/9 innings can measure a pitcher dominance better than ERA, because it depends solely on his ability to make hitters miss the ball, or not swing at it.
Throughout his five year career (including his three innings in 2012, Robertson has a career SO/9 of 12.1, a really good number. Achieving in 2011 the highest SO/9 rate of his career with 13.5. Throughout his career, his SO/9 has never been below 10, his lowest was in 2010 with 10.4.
His only downside could be his BB/9 which is 4.7 for his career, because his HR/9 has improved in every single season since he reached the Majors. 0.9 in 2008, 0.8 in 2009, 0.7 in 2010 and 0.1 in 2010. I don’t see how he can improve that, but the season is still young. Also his GB% reached his higher plateau in 2011 as well with 48, and has been below 40 only one time throughout his career.
The first player I decided to compare Robertson with is Jose Valverde, the closer who was perfect in saves opportunities converted throughout the entire 2011 season. Valverde’s SO/9 last year was 8.6, his BB/9 4.2, his HR/9 0.6 and his GB% 44. No matter what the saves’ column says, Robertson was more dominant than him.
Then I selected his teammate and probably the guy he is going to replace when he retires, Mariano Rivera. Rivera in my opinion is the best closer in the history of baseball, and his numbers speak for themselves, but Rivera has only been above 10 SO/9 just once in his HOF-career, 10.9 in 1996, his first as a reliever. Now, where Rivera becomes a demigod is in his BB/9, HR/9 and GB%. Last season his BB/9 was 1.2, and throughout his career his BB/9 is 2.1. His HR/9 last season was 0.4 and has been 0.5 throughout his career. His GB% last season was 48 and has been above 50 13 times throughout his 18-year career, so that’s why he has been incredibly dominant.
Another candidate for comparison here could be Francisco Rodriguez, who holds the record for most saved games in a single season. K-Rod is a career 11.2 SO/9, but since 2009 only once has been above 10 in that department (10.5 in 2010). His BB/9 has been a little bit lower than Robertson’s, but throughout his most dominant years that wasn’t the rule. His record-setting season (2008) Rodriguez had a 10.1 SO/9, 4.5 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9 and 42 GB%. Last season he had a 9.9 SO/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9 and 53 GB%.
Brad Lidge’s best season, 2008 was when he achieved 41 saves in 41 opportunities. He had a 11.9 SO/9, 4.0 BB/9, 0.3 HR/9 and 48 GB%, easily comparable with Robertson’s numbers.
The only reliever right now that has great SO/9 and BB/9 at the same time, at least among the ones I could think of, is Jonathan Papelbon, who had 12.2 SO/9 and 1.4 BB/9 in 2011. He also had a 0.4 HR/9 and 38 GB% last year with the Red Sox. While Papelbon’s SO/BB ratio have been better than Robertson’s, 8.70 against 2.86 last season, and 4.44 against 2.56 throughout their careers, Robertson has been slightly better than Papelbon keeping the ball on the ground. Robertson’s HR/9 last season was 0.1 and Papelbon’s 0.4, not bad, but Robertson was better. Also Robertson has had better GB% than Papelbon in all of his seasons but one, Robertson’s debut season in the Majors, 2008, when Papelbon achieved the highest GB% in his career with 51.
So could Robertson be the most dominant reliever right now? Yes, I think he could be. We’ll obviously have to wait and see how the season unfolds, but from what I saw yesterday, Robertson could have a hell of a season and become the most dominant reliever in the Majors.
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What everyone should know about Ozzie Guillen
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Since word broke about what Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen said about Cuban dictator Fidel Castro, all hell has broken lose. Pretty much everybody in the world read what Guillen said last week about Castro, and that he probably shouldn’t have said it, but don’t you think this is getting out of hand?
NBCSports’ Craig Calcaterra believes that Guillen was only trying to say something funny. He says that Guillen was only trying to point out how Castro has avoided death for so long, and I believe Craig is right. That’s just Ozzie being Ozzie. As Craig also points out Guillen has been highly critical about Hugo Chavez’s government, and let’s not forget that Chavez is Castro’s puppet.
Now, I would like to know, where’s everybody when Guillen is at a hospital with his wife giving away presents to children with cancer?. Because he has a foundation devoted to improving the lives of children and their families who have dealt with cancer. Or where is everybody when Guillen criticizes Chavez’s government? Are they listening to it, or are they just waiting for his next mis-step to crucify him?
I know he’s not perfect, and that he has run his mouth a lot throughout his career, but hey, “he that is without sin among you, let him first cast a stone.”
I’m sure Guillen has done more good things that bad things in his life, and it was accomplished by hard work and nothing else. Nobody gave him anything for free, he has earned what he has. He comes from a low income family in Venezuela, he fought his way up to the Majors and had a lengthy career that includes a Rookie of the Year award in 1983. Then he became the first Venezuelan manager in the Majors and the first Latin American manager to ever win a World Series. I admire Ozzie Guillen because he’s an example that hard work will get you anywhere you want.
Here’s what Guillen said about Castro (via Calcaterra):
“I love Fidel Castro. I respect Fidel Castro. You know why?,” said Guillen. “A lot of people have wanted to kill Fidel Castro for the last 60 years, but that mother****** is still here”
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Guy throws 13 perfect innings in MLB 2K12, doesn’t win the $1 million prize
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As some of you know, the guys from 2K Sports have this contest where you can receive $1 million for throwing the first perfect game in the MLB 2K game. This year, T.J. Brida was in the 14th inning of a perfect game when he gave up the first hit of the game to Pirates’ Jose Tabata according to Owen Good of Kotaku.com.
As Good points out, “the minimum requirement to advance is retiring 27 consecutive batters. Brida, using Roy Halladay of his beloved Phillies, sat down 40. But he didn’t get the last one.”
“Trust me, I was pretty pissed,” Brida told Good. Brida failed to score during 13 innings and that’s why he didn’t win the contest. On the website, there’s a nine minute video that begins in the bottom of the ninth and ends when Brida “punches the power button, and the screen goes dark.”
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Can Zack Greinke pull off a Matt Cain type-deal?
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Yesterday, the Giants gave Matt Cain a five-year, $112.5 million deal, and Zack Greinke could be seeking a similar contract after his current deal expires at the end of the season. According to Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, Greinke answered “we’ll see” when asked about that possibility.
Jim Bowden of ESPNXMtweeted earlier today that Greinke will be represented by Casey Close of Excel Sports Management from now on (formerly of CAA), but there’s still uncertainty if Greinke will continue negotiating after the regular season begins this week.
There is no doubt that Cain’s new deal will be brought up by Greinke’s agent when negotiating his new contract, but does Greinke deserves such a deal? Let’s take a look at their numbers.
Greinke (28) is one year older than Cain (27) and has also one more year of experience in the Majors. Greinke is a career 76-73 with a 3.82 ERA in 1279.2 innings. He is a career 0.9 HR/9, 2.3 BB/9 8.0 SO/9 and his GB% is about 41. His career VORP is 217.3, his FRAA 4.10 and his WARP is 22.8. His injury history includes a cracked rib last season, where he missed 28 games and clinical depression back in 2006, where he missed 69 games because of that.
Cain is a career 69-73 with a 3.35 ERA in 1317.1 innings. He is a career 0.7 HR/9, 3.2 BB/9, 7.4 SO/9 and his GB% is about 38. His career VORP is 187.6, his FRAA is 4.02 and his WARP is 18.8. He has only missed three games due to injuries. That was in 2009 because of an elbow contusion.
If we compare their numbers we can see that they’re pretty similar, with Greinke having the lead in SO/9, BB/9 and GB%, although not by much, and Cain having the lead in HR/9. Also Greinke has accumulated a bigger VORP, FRAA and WARP in less innings, but those differences aren’t huge either.
The only big difference between the two could be the health. While Greinke has missed 101 games throughout his career, Cain has only missed three, but Greinke’s injuries shouldn’t be threatening either. He cracked a rib last year while playing basketball, and the other significant “injury” was a clinical depression, something that should be past him already.
So in conclusion, if Greinke keeps pitching well this season, he could, and actually should manage a deal similar to the one the Giants gave Cain last season.
Image by Keith Allison under the Creative Commons License.
Miguel Montero wants a Victor Martinez-type deal
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Venezuelan catcher Miguel Montero, who will become a free agent at the end of the 2012 season, is looking for a contract similar to the one Victor Martinez got from the Tigers back in 2010 (four-year, $52 million) reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.
In 2011, Montero hit .282/.351/.469 with 18 HR’s and 86 RBI’s. He had a 34 VORP, a 2.0 FRAA and a 3.8 WARP. This was Montero’s best offensive season to date in his six year career.
Martinez was coming off another strong offensive season (prior to signing his contract), where he hit .330/.380/.470 with 12 HR’s and 103 RBI’s. He had a 29.1 VORP, a -0.2 FRAA and a 3.1 WARP.
While Montero is a better defensive catcher than Martinez, Martinez has been a better hitter than Montero, but their offensive value is starting to get closer to each other. In Montero’s last three seasons his VORP has been 29.6, 11.0 and 34.0 respectively, and Martinez 20.2, 29.2 and 29.1.
Also Montero is five years younger than Martinez, so a four-year deal for him doesn’t seem crazy. According to Heyman, the Diamonbacks aren’t planning to give Montero a deal similar to the one Martinez got from the Tigers, but if you watch his performance during the past three seasons, it is hard to say that he doesn’t deserve it.
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The Reds would like to keep Votto and Phillips long term, but can they? (Part II)
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Yesterday we talked about the Reds’ intentions of keeping both Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto, and explained how much we believe Phillips should make in a long-term deal. Now its time to evaluate Votto. Tracy Ringolsby of FOXSports.com, believes that Prince Fielder’s nine-year, $214 million deal with the Tigers and Albert Pujols‘ 10-year, $254 million with the Angels will be used as benchmark in Votto’s contract talks.
In 2011, Votto hit .309/.416/.531 with 29 HR’s and 103 RBI’s. His FRAA was 14.2 and his VORP 53.2 for a 7.2 WARP, the highest number in his career. He is a career 179.4 VORP, 31.6 FRAA and 21.9 WARP in five Major League seasons and is only 28 years old.
Pujols, 32, had his worst offensive season last year since he reached the Major in 2001. In fact, it was the first time in his career that his BA was below .300 (.299) and the second time in his career that his OBP was below .400 (.366). His FRAA in 2011 was 13.5, his VORP 43.4 and his WARP 6.1, all still pretty good numbers. His career VORP is 787.7, his FRAA 121.7 and his WARP 91.2, outstanding numbers for Pujols.
Fielder on the other hand hit .299/.415/.566 with 38 HR’s and 120 RBI’s in 2011. His VORP was 51.0, his FRAA -0.8 and his WARP 5.3, the highest number in his career. His career VORP is 215.4, his FRAA -22.5 and his WARP 19.7, also good numbers. He is 27 years old.
Of the three, Pujols has been the greatest, but is also the oldest, and is coming off one of the worst season in his career (still a very solid sesason for anyone else). Votto was more valuable than Fielder in 2010 and 2011. Fielder was only superior than Votto in 2009 when he had a 4.5 WARP and Votto 4.3. Also, Votto is clearly a better defensive player than Fielder, although Pujols has been better than Votto except for the 2011 season, when Pujols had a 13.5 FRAA and Votto 14.2.
Votto’s age will play a significant role in the contract negotiations. He is already one year older than Fielder, and will be about Pujols’ age when he hits the market. I don’t think he can pull a Pujols’ style deal, after all, in his worst season, Pujols had a 6.1 WARP and in his best season Votto had a 7.2 WARP. I think Votto’s next contract could be closer to Fielder’s deal with the Tigers.
Now, nine years for Votto when he turns 30 sounds as crazy as giving Pujols ten years at age 31, but when you’re talking about Pujols you’re talking about probably the best player in the game right now. I don’t think the Reds are going to commit that many years with Votto, and if he wants that kind of contract he will probably have to look elsewhere, say the Los Angeles Dodgers? I think Votto should probably get a seven-year, $175 million deal, or an eight-year $184 million. With this I’m not saying that Fielder is a better player than Votto, but I believe that both Fielder and Pujols were overpaid by the Tigers and Angels respectively.
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