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The rumors recently have the Houston Astros shopping one, if not both, of their homegrown stars as the summer trade deadline approaches. It does make sense for the Astros to be looking around for the best possible talent-haul they could get back for either Roy Oswalt or Lance Berkman, but is that even possible?

The Astros for the last three to four seasons have been that cautionary tale that all stat-geeks talk about when referring to teams that pay for perceived skill based on reputation instead of actual value based on production. In large part this tale is affirmed with the contracts given to league-average players such as Pedro Feliz, and Brandon Lyon, in an effort to be “competitive” when that money would be better spent on amateur players.

For a franchise in the market size of Houston – which let’s be honest, Houston is a rather large city, any payroll limitations they may have are self-inflicted – the best bargain of talent they can find is through Latin-American signings and the draft. Instead, coming as close as they did at winning the World Series in 2005, Houston ever since has been trying to regain that level of talent by handing out massive contracts to +30 year old players. It’s not a great idea. Ask the Phillies in five years regarding Ryan Howard.

So while owner Drayton McLane might find it better for the sake of his PR department to keep players that the community can identify with – which is a largely foolish reason to keep a player – he’s stuck keeping the player that should be traded, Carlos Lee, because of some $46 million still owed to him over the next three years and a full no-trade clause. Lee is a prime example of what “old-player skills” look like when they get, well, old. He’s a terrible leftfielder with a slowing bat and a whole ton of money still coming his way. He’s stuck.

So what should the Astros do? Blow it up. Of course, I’m always in favor of blowing it up when it comes to perennially bad teams with three players making over $14 million. If you’re going to lose, lose with young talent. The only problem is each player has a full no-trade clause, but hopefully, the chance to player for a winner could get each to waive that.

Trading Oswalt and Berkman and eating a large sum of the money like Cleveland did when they traded Casey Blake to the Dodgers for Carlos Santana, should be first on the agenda. Sure that’s easier said than done because it isn’t my money, but teams every year fall into the same trap over worrying about money owed to players because of familiarity.

Veterans make a lot of money for the most part because they’ve been around long enough to accumulate the counting stats that necessitate raises. See: Feliz, Pedro. Also there’s a case of “I know what I have in this guy” syndrome floating around that keeps bad teams bad. Veterans are, if nothing else consistent, and that in baseball’s mind means a lot. But at this point Oswalt’s value to the Astros is more in what he can bring back in terms of young talent than his current 3.16 ERA. Why? Because it’s not like they’re winning with him anyway.

Oswalt is signed through 2011 with a healthy club option of $16 million for 2012. Chances are that’s not getting picked up, so whatever team trades for him is looking at roughly $25.5 million for the right-hander after his $2 million buyout.

Berkman’s contract is up at the end of this year so he fits the literal definition of Rental Player. There’s almost no way the Astros can flip Berkman for talent if they don’t eat most, if not all, of the remaining money on his contract. A 34-year-old first baseman having a bad year isn’t exactly a top priority for most clubs. But you can envision a club like the Angels looking into Berkman as someone to fill the void left by the (hilariously) injured Kendry Morales.

Houston should use Oswalt and Berkman as if they would, or should, use the draft. The money they would be spending to send each player to another team should be considered the same as a signing bonus they would give a drafted amateur. These two players give the Astros a chance to quickly rebound a farm system that hasn’t produced an all-star player since, well, these two.

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For all of those that thought Stephen Strasburg wasn’t worth the millions of dollars and the Major League contract he was given when drafted, well, you were wrong.

Not only did the Nationals make more than $1.5 million on his debut start last night, but in the midst of his completely dominating performance cash registers all over the greater D.C. area were warming up for what will be one heck of a busy summer.

For a franchise like the Nationals it’s hard to have a break-through in the standings, which ultimately is the most important thing, without that one iconic player. That one player brings media attention, which brings viewers and spectators, which brings advertising dollars, which brings money to the team to afford better players across the roster. Star players drive the mechanism, and the mechanism is officially in full force in our nation’s capital.

The skeptics will say to let Strasburg actually establish himself as a big leaguer before anointing him the Next Big Thing. I say, let it fly Washington. Milk this star, this instant money maker, and raise your franchise from the depths of obscurity. You have what other perennial losers are trying to find, and there is no reason you shouldn’t put it out there for all the world to see.

We’re already hearing reports about ticket sales for his next start against the Indians skyrocketing after last night’s performance. All over baseball people are looking ahead to when The Strasburg Train will roll into town. He is a national sensation, that didn’t disappoint in his first appearance, which will only help bring attention to the Nationals and help grow their fan base. From a marketing standpoint, Strasburg is pure gold.

From the Nationals perspective there are no downsides to making Strasburg the focal point of your franchise. Do you worry about the psyche of a young player? Sure, I guess. But that’s why you have players in the dugout and coaches with experience to isolate him on the inside while promoting the heck out of him on the outside. This is a chance for the Nationals to become relevant and they cannot pass it up.

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Buster Posey is good. Real good. Real good especially because he plays a position that doesn’t often lend itself to offensive production, which just so happens to be what ol’ Buster does best.

Bengie Molina, well, he’s not so good. He’s old, slow, doesn’t throw all that well anymore, doesn’t hit all that well  anymore (ignore the batting average for a moment and get with the new century), and the last time he saw a pitch he didn’t feel fit to swing at was when little brother Yadier was throwing to him in the backyard.

Molina also makes $5 million this year. Posey? Let’s just say he’s slightly under that.

The paying, and subsequently playing, of an older, unproductive, and expensive player is the thing that can show the ineptness of an organization quicker than anything else. The defending of such moves because of those pesky little things unseen (he’s a leader!)shows the real ignorance of generations past in how they view baseball and how they choose to construct a roster. It’s sad really.

Teams all over baseball do this. Well, not necessarily the winning teams. Funny how that works out.

The Royals do it. They signed and continue to play Scott Podsednik even though his already empty batting average is proven to be more the byproduct of an unreal, unsustainable, start to the season, rather than his talent.

The Cubs are doing it because they signed Bob Howry instead of bringing up either Jay Jackson or Andrew Cashner.

The Astros do it, although by not really blocking a well-known prospect, by electing to pay Pedro Feliz to play perfectly average defense and little else.

The Royals do it. (See a pattern with this franchise?) They signed Rick Ankiel which meant pushing a younger, better, cheaper player in Mitch Maier to the bench before Ankiel got hurt. Thankfully.

Why do teams do this? It must be something in the comfort of the name. Organizations that are strapped for money, or organizations that constantly lose, must feel like they can’t afford to not sign these guys. I mean, they’re names. Some are relatively big names. Not big names like Pujols, or A-Rod, or Mauer mind you, but big enough names that the fans know who they are. And thus, the organization knows who they are.

So I suppose that’s it. It’s the fear of the unknown in the young players. I would contest the fear shouldn’t be in the “what if Buster Posey doesn’t perform?” camp, but rather the “what if Bengie Molina performs exactly how he’s proven he’s going to?” camp.

The numbers can be pretty.

Molina hit 20 homeruns last year and drove in 80. He’s good!

Feliz had 82 RBI last year. What other third baseman on the market will give us that kind of production? He’s good!

Rick Ankiel used to be a pitcher. Now, he’s an outfielder! He’s good!

However each of these players when put in the correct context should only be seen as struggling to be average and nothing more. Unfortunately for the teams that employ them though, they are not paid like average players.

Molina has a .323 wOBA (an average wOBA is about .340) which would be a perfectly acceptable number from a catcher if he were making say, what Posey would be making, league minimum.

Feliz has a .548 OPS so far this year. .548! Let’s pause for a moment to let that number sink in. That’s bad. That’s phenomenally bad. It’s so bad in fact that the Astros are willingly paying him $4.5 million this season. Well, you say, that’s because he had a good year last year and they’re paying on past performance. Okay. Last season, Feliz had a .694 OPS. Yeah, that’s really bad too.

For some teams, and I suppose the Giants would consider themselves in this category, keeping a player down to hold back his service time which means delaying arbitration is a big issue. It could mean the difference between 2, 3, maybe even as much as 5 million dollars a few years down the round. That’s quite a lot of money that could be used on other good players to surround someone like Posey in a couple of years.

Then again, if Posey is the player everyone thinks he is, or at least the hitter everyone thinks he is, the difference between the playoffs and not for a franchise like San Francisco means a heck of a lot more than the possibility of $5 million three years from now.

Just think, if the Giants didn’t resign Molina in the first place, well heck, there’s that $5 million right there.

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In a recent PRORumors story a GM was quoted as saying, “it makes no sense to make a managerial change. What this says is, they’re trying to salvage the season.”

Well, there hasn’t been a whole lot that has made sense in the era of Dayton Moore as GM of the Royals.

The firing of Trey Hillman, while possibly a necessity, really amounts to – as others have pointed out – just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. No manager could possibly be expected to win with a roster full of past-their prime 30-somethings on bad contracts. What’s worse, is this broken roster comes smack in the middle of what should be a youth movement intended on setting the Kansas City franchise up for contending years to come.

The first day Dayton Moore was hired as GM he talked about there not being excuses. There aren’t excuses for a team to not play fundamental baseball. There aren’t excuses for a franchise to have a losing record for 15 of the last 16 seasons. There aren’t excuses of payroll limitations and the hardships that a market like Kansas City has to deal with, to compete.

And now, four years later, Dayton Moore is full of excuses.

For the past 8 to 12 months fans of Kansas City have had to hear about how bad the minor leagues were once Moore took over. Things have started to turn around now, if you don’t consider that they haven’t already fully turned.

Mike Moustakas is hitting, Mike Montgomery is pitching, and Derrick Robinson is stealing bases and getting on base enough to make a team stuck in their 1980s philosophy swoon.

But those prospects are still in AA and won’t be ready to help the Royals for at least another year.* So while this year’s version of The Process spirals towards yet another 100-loss season, perhaps it may be time for the GM, you know the guy picking the players, to be accountable for the losing more so than the manager that was merely cooking with the ingredients given.

*Recently Moore said that it takes 2-4 years for a player to make the majors once they were drafted, and another 2-4 to find their place in majors. Now aside from openly telling your group of major league players currently on the roster “hey sorry guys, but you have to wait another four years for this team to really be any good,” I think it’s pretty clear that some players don’t need 2-4 years to make it in the majors, just players that play for an organization looking for excuses.

It makes no sense to have expected Hillman to win with this roster. Yes the former manager is to blame for a number of things like ruining a $55 million pitcher, ignorantly calling for sacrifice bunts, and his overall confusing ways of speech.

But it’s not Hillman that decided a guaranteed 2-year deal for more than $6 million to a 36-year-old catcher – that hasn’t been good since freaking 2004 – was a good idea. It’s not Hillman that promised centerfield to Rick Ankiel even though a) he can’t play it and b) no one else wanted him to play it. It’s not Hillman that traded for possibly the worst everyday player in baseball in Yuniesky Betancourt.

The list goes on of head-scratcher moves that have been made in the tenure of Dayton Moore.

Fans understand it takes time to win especially given where the Royals are trying to come back from. They do.

What they don’t understand is how a GM can routinely spout with arrogance and defiance to trust The Process, when The Process clearly seems to be saying that it’s right to overpay for below-average old players while burying equally productive and much cheaper players in AAA. (Here’s looking at you Alex Gordon and Kila Ka’aihue)

There’s a lot of talk being spent defending The Process. There’s a lot of talk about how keeping players like Jose Guillen and Joakim Soria and Scott Podsednik on the team this year actually does make sense because it allows those players in the minors to stay there and develop. But the next time you hear or read about how the fans should be patient with Moore because he’s building through the minor leagues and what he’s doing does make sense, just remember, he’s also the guy that gave Willie Bloomquist $3 million.

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So the MLBPA is considering filing a grievance against the owners for possible collusion stemming from the lack of reckless spending during the “post-2009 free agent market.”

The only reaction I have to this is the same one Charlie Donovan had towards Rachel Phelps when she told him to sit down.

It makes perfect sense for the players union to do all they can to make sure their clients are getting all – and them some – according to what the market dictates. That is the creed all unions are charged with. They are to make sure things are always done in the workers best interest. Only in this case, it has little to do with the economy, and more to do with baseball people slowly understanding how baseball actually works.

Before Moneyball – yes, the M word – teams were largely stuck in neutral with regards to how they evaluated players. It was all about what you saw.

This guy’s fast.

This guy’s got great power.

Boy the ball really jumps off his bat.

And my favorite, he really plays the game the “right way,” as if there is any skill called the “right way”.

All, I suppose, perfectly fine ways of looking at baseball if you were content with walking around with your head in the sand and thinking the world is flat. But as technology evolved, our understanding of certain mathematical factors evolved, and player trends stayed the same, very smart people started to see patterns and thought to themselves: what does this all mean?

Great evolvements in human history come from curios minds. The exploiting of market inefficiencies in baseball is one of them.

All Moneyball set out to prove was that certain skills, mainly the skill of getting on base, were undervalued in the market because it wasn’t a clearly seen ability. At least, not one if you never bothered to think about it objectively. Getting on base is the most important offensive skill in baseball because the game is governed by outs, not by runs, and the fewer outs you make the more runs you create. It’s simple.

But for decades baseball organizations were routinely run by those that were “brought up with the game,” which is a fancy way of saying they never got outside their bubble to learn from a more objective view point.

And within that bubble of subjectivity lies the problem. It was incurious people learning from incurious people – a breeding ground for unoriginal thought and devolvement. It was the reason then, and still is today, that baseball is the most poorly run business in the country. Players of little to no value are paid more than players of actual productive value, because there are still those that believe baseball is entirely in what you see, and not what has been proven.

Take the Kansas City Royals for instance.

This last off-season the GM Dayton Moore signed Rick Ankiel, Scott Podsednik, and Jason Kendall, all while having players already on the roster that would provide equal to, or more value, for a fraction of the cost.

Kendall was given a 2 year, $6-million deal even though he’s an atrocious hitter, has overrated on base skills (his stats largely reflect hitting in front of the pitcher in the National League) and is 36 years old. The deal was justified because he calls a great game (an extremely overrated, and subjective, skill), knows how to handle a pitching staff (another extremely overrated, and subjective, skill), and is a “winner.”

Now we can argue the merits of those traits and whether or not they actually mean anything or have anything to do with a team win, but what cannot be argued is those (presumed) traits Kendall brings to the table are not enough of a positive difference when compared to Brayan Pena’s actual talent, to justify the extra $5+ million the Royals are spending.

In any other business in the United States personnel is paid based on what they are producing not what they might produce, or could produce, or someone, somewhere, thinks they can produce. Kendall has been a below average Major League player for more than three years now. There is no reason to conclude he should warrant money the “market dictates.” His value is minimal; he should be paid, minimally.

The players union may claim collusion because money isn’t being thrown around as wildly as it used to be, but I think – I hope – that’s done more because they have to and not because they think it’s true.

Baseball is getting smarter, not cheaper. Team executives understand more the true value of players around the evolvement of statistics, and are dolling out their money more according to what they prove and not according to what they think. Baseball is starting to act more like a responsible business.

The union should be glad they still have the Royals.

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A few days ago Top 10 Kansas City Royals prospect Danny Duffy decided he was going to leave professional baseball. After having an outside shot at being a part of this year’s pitching staff either to start the season or almost certainly during, an injury caused a delay to his big league dreams. Well, maybe they weren’t his dreams after all.

I’m sure in the next couple of weeks, and months, we’ll begin to hear about the circumstances that led to Duffy to leave pro baseball*. I’m sure in the next couple of days, and months, we’ll begin to hear, even though we’ve already started to hear some, about how he’s a quitter and how he’s throwing away a tremendous opportunity, or how he’s a myriad of derogatory adjectives. I’d like to caution all of us to not get caught up in the world of nonsense that is sports blogger rage.

*Since Duffy, there have been two other Royals minor leaguers have decided to leave the organization. They won’t be last. They won’t be the last in all of professional baseball this year.

All we know, all we need to know, is that a young man has decided that at this time in his life, baseball is not for him. For whatever reason. We can only begin to speculate why or what, but doing so would be irresponsible. We’ll find out soon enough. Someone will talk to someone, who will talk to someone, and we’ll have our “answers.” As if we needed some anyway. Unfortunately until then, Duffy is going to be chastised for somehow being less of a man.

I grew up in Kansas City and spent all of my adult life to this point living there and being saturated with all things Royals. I remember the day it came out that franchise savior Zack Greinke was taking his leave of absence from baseball and how everyone had their thoughts on the matter. There was the name calling, the questions of how tough he was – cause you know, the one thing Sport is good at is making a man less of one if for some reason his sport isn’t everything that matters to him – and the confusion over how someone could pass up this “opportunity.”

Sadly fans and journalists alike got lost in the fact that this wasn’t their life, it was Greinke’s. Well this isn’t our life either, it is Duffy’s. It’s all of these players’ lives.

The juvenile name calling, the questioning of his toughness, the calling him a “quitter” is irresponsible. The young man made a choice. Nothing more. He decided that at this point, baseball wasn’t for him, and that’s fine. Perfectly fine. That does not make him a quitter, that makes him just like everyone else who ever worked at a job they didn’t like and wanted to try something different. Just because it’s baseball, doesn’t mean it’s not a job.

Sometimes we lose touch with reality when it comes to professional athletes. We expect all of them to have this unshakable drive, this unrelenting desire, and this ultimate love for the game the way we do. Well, not all of them do.

Some pro athletes play because they can, and for no other reason. They don’t play because they love their sport, they play because they’re better at it than you or me, and well, they might as well. And that’s perfectly fine.

But when that fine line of admiration is crossed into the ugly world of jealousy, it’s not fair. Just because Duffy – or any player choosing to leave the fame and do something different with their lives – has left doesn’t mean he quit. It just means it’s not want he wanted. It’s not his fault it may have been what others wanted.

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We all make mistakes. True. Surely we all can agree that at certain times in our lives we’ve done something stupid that has caused us embarrassment of some kind. Parking tickets, speeding tickets, getting caught cheating on a test in high school; these are things that can be classified as mistakes, mistakes we learn from.

What cannot be classified as a mistake is using, and thusly being tested positive for, cocaine.

That, is a crime.

By now everyone has to have heard about Texas Rangers Manager Ron Washington testing positive last summer for his use of cocaine. Managers, like players, under the new collective bargaining agreement are subject to drug testing to ensure the “integrity of the game.” Washington says, once he got word that he was to be tested, approached the Rangers and Major League Baseball to confess what he had done and to offer his resignation. The Rangers after what I’m sure – what I hope – was a long discussion about the legal implications, the ethical implications, and the moral standing of the franchise, decided to keep Washington on as its manager.

Now that is a mistake.

It shouldn’t come as much of a shock I guess. Major League Baseball is fairly well known for its, um, problems, throughout its history. It’s no secret that professional athletes as a whole are not looked at as beacons of moral authority considering their social behaviors. (That is not to say all players have this reputation. Or even most. Or even some. But we admire them for their physical talents more so that who they are or what they stand for. And that’s, okay, I suppose.)

It shouldn’t come as much of a shock that behavior like this – while I’m sure was taken seriously in the moment and maybe even still today behind the curtain of public relations – is being treated casually as a person that just happened to make a bad decision at one point, and that’s that.

It certainly isn’t that. It certainly isn’t something that should allow a person to keep his six-figure job being the face of an organization. It certainly isn’t something that should be reason to keep Washington in a position as a highly public figure and as the focus of the community. This wasn’t merely a mistake.

But, if by saying this, am I then saying people don’t deserve second chances? No. People do, they absolutely do. How else can we expect to evolve as a society if we don’t allow people to make mistakes and then move forward from them? But this isn’t a mistake. It’s certainly not a mistake that even the purist of character can overcome. This shows bad judgment. Bad judgment in the worst way. And something so egregious, something so flippant to the natural order of society and disrespect to your standing in a community, shouldn’t be met with a shoulder and a hug. We’re all allowed to grow and move forward, but that doesn’t mean we’re allowed to do something as bad as this and then to keep our jobs. Being a Major League manager is not an entitlement.

There are excuses being made every day for professional athletes. Tiger Woods was given the excuse that he was “only human” and he wasn’t perfect. Athletes that commit crimes of violence are often given the way out of “well, it was in the heat of the moment.” Ron Washington was given “he made a mistake.”

I admire – or better put, I’m glad – that Washington is not shy about taking blame for what he’s done. That’s nice. I don’t know who else there would be to put the blame on. And I find it nice that the Rangers players are all standing behind their manager. Though, I’m not sure what else they’re supposed to do or say. I guess I am just disappointed.

Disappointed that while yes, it does say something about the organization of baseball to stand by someone that has screwed up, it says so much more that there isn’t any kind of legal ramifications or punishment being handed down. Washington and the Rangers are just allowed to say they’re sorry and move along as if there’s nothing to see here. (Perhaps those are to come and they’re being deliberated. To that point, I’m not sure, and I’m just speaking from a knee-jerk reaction. Though, if they were to render some kind of punishment, I’m not sure what they’re waiting for, it was nine months ago.)

Sometimes fans talk about the need for politicians, celebrities, athletes, to be held to a higher standard, as being a role model for the youth of American. No, they just need to be held to a standard. Ridiculously poor judgment is a fire-able offense. And being “only human” means making mistakes, but never committing a crime in the first place.

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With the speculation recently about whether the Twins should, or would, look into trading Joe Mauer, there have also been conversations about how much it would take to sign the two-time batting champion and reigning American League MVP.

Mauer enters the 2010 season in the last year of a four-year deal.  At the time the contract seemed like a no brainer; buy out the arbitration years of a very good, young player, and deal with the inevitable “how can we resign this player” concerns when the time comes.

Well, the time has come.

Not only is Mauer a homegrown talent, but the real-life Bill Brasky is also from St. Paul, so that makes him the face, identity, persona, and thesaurus, of the franchise. He’s also the entire reason the Twins have been or will be relevant on the Big Stage in the near future. So what’s a player like that worth?

The stats speak for themselves: a career batting average of .327, a career OPS a shade under .900, and he’s coming off a career year which saw his season high homerun total jump from 13 to 28. All trends are pointing upwards for this soon to be – April 19th – 27 year old.

How much is arguably the game’s best player, playing a premium defensive position, worth?

Instead of giving the “he’s worth whatever someone is willing to pay him” line – let’s remember that doesn’t always ring true, Yuniesky Betancourt made $2.3 million last year to be the worst player in baseball – we should look at it from the Twins’ perspective.

We can be pretty well assured that the Yankees will offer Mauer a contract north of $200 million, so does it make sense for the Twins to offer Mauer the same knowing how big a chunk that would take out of their overall payroll? Absolutely.

Rob Neyer recently speculated if a team could afford to spend 25 percent of its payroll on one player and continue to succeed. The Twins are moving into a new stadium and have just locked up centerfielder Denard Span – buying out his arbitration years and a year a free agency – so there is already a presumed influx of money coming, as well as future money being saved on a key everyday player.  Add in that the Twins have Ben Revere and Aaron Hicks on the way to be cheap alternatives to the expiring contracts of Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel, and Minnesota could easily justify how paying Mauer so much could fit within their economic model.

Whether it’s best for baseball that Mauer stay in Minnesota is a discussion for another day. He is almost assuredly to be offered a contract mirroring or coming close to the 10-year, $275 million deal Alex Rodriguez signed in 2007. Is Mauer worth it? Yes.

And to Minnesota he’s worth so much more.

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