Author Archive
Will Mariners Follow Correct Precedent?
Posted by: | CommentsTwo years ago today, Cleveland Indians starting pitcher CC Sabathia was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers for their top prospect, Matt LaPorta, along with three other decent prospects. By going after CC early, the Brewers were able to squeeze a number of extra starts out of the big lefty, as well as build team confidence heading into the playoffs.
Unfortunately for Milwaukee, we all know how this played out. CC pitched to a 11-2 record, 1.65 ERA, tossed seven complete games including three shutouts, and then got absolutely shelled in the playoffs for the second year in a row.
However, it’s an almost unarguable fact that the Brewers would in no way have made the playoffs had it not been for CC’s dominant regular season performances. What’s more interesting is that because the Brewers did not clinch a wild card berth until the last game of the season, had they waited until the trade deadline to trade for Sabathia, they still might not have made the postseason.
With Cliff Lee making headlines at the break, for the second year in a row, it seems as if the Mariners are asking for an astronomical fee for the 2008 AL Cy Young Award winner. It is rumored that they have already balked at the Minnesota Twins’ offer of Wilson Ramos and Aaron Hicks. I fully expect the M’s to trade Lee, but they are out of their minds if they think they will get two prospects of higher quality than Ramos and Hicks, if in fact the rumor is true.
But the Mariners’ strategy is very smart, at least judging from precedent. If you look at the return that Sabathia got the Indians compared to the prospects they netted for Lee in 2009, the latter is far less impressive. In their first deal, the Indians traded early, received the Brewers’ top prospect, who at the time was one of the top three hitting prospects in baseball. However, after waiting until the end of July, in my opinion, the quality of the prospects they received for Lee in 2009, were not of the caliber of LaPorta. The prize in the trade, Carlos Carrasco, was having an abysmal year in Triple-A, and catcher Lou Marson and Jason Donald were once very good prospects that were older, and not performing up to top prospect standards in Triple-A.
With the Mariners 15 games out of their division, and even further out of the wild card, their season doesn’t look bright. And while some speculate that it is too early to throw in the towel, history shows that an extra month of playing time potentially gives you a better return on your product.
The only question is, how long will Seattle wait. Most teams were tired of the Minnesota Twins toying with their emotions during the Johan Santana trade discussions, and they settled for four prospects who ultimately busted, aside from Kevin Slowey.
The Mariners need to stay smart with this Cliff Lee situation. He’s a dominant pitcher, and worth top prospects to those desperate enough to trade them. However, they must not wait too long if they plan on getting top dollar. I look for Lee to be with a new team this time next week if the Mariners know what they’re doing.
AL West: A Disappointing Race
Posted by: | CommentsAfter the Seattle Mariners, the Texas Rangers and the Oakland Athletics each added an ace starting pitcher to their rosters to keep up with the Los Angeles Angels, it seemed as if the AL West would be of the most competitive divisions in baseball.
Now it seems like just a matter of time before this division is a two-team race. The Rangers did a superb job of taking a chance on the aging veteran Vladimir Guerrero, who already has 14 home runs and 54 runs knocked in. Last year, the injured Vlad showed his age on both the base paths and on defense, but the Rangers luckily saw pass that.
It’s too early to say that the Rich Harden experiment has failed but after 13 starts, a 5.68 ERA and a stint on the disabled list, it’s safe to say that the Rangers may look to add a cheap starting pitcher at the deadline. It won’t be a Cliff Lee, but Jake Westbrook could be a name that is thrown around in the Rangers’ war room. The Rangers have also been in talks with the Orioles about a possible Ty Wigginton trade. If you remember, the Rangers and Orioles were able to get a deal done before spring training, exchanging Kevin Millwood and Chris Ray. You would think the Wigginton could be had for a mid-level prospect, and could platoon nicely with rookie Justin Smoak.
Before the season, the Los Angeles Angels had one of the best top-to-bottom rotations in baseball. However, Joe Saunders’ awful start, and Scott Kazmir’s injury has not been beneficial to their cause. The Angels have been plagued with bad luck as of late. Kendry Morales, who broke his leg while celebrating a walk-off homer, is just one of the Angels many players on the disabled list. He’s joined by Brandon Wood, Matt Palmer, and Jason Bulger, just to name a few.
In my opinion, the Angels will have to go the route of the Rangers and add a solid, playoff-experienced pitcher to help stabilize their rotation down the stretch. This division very well may come down to whoever has the best trade deadline.
And now for the sellers of the division…
You may be surprised to see the Oakland Athletics on my list of sellers considering they are only 4.5 games out of first place. I’m also fairly certain that the Athletics could be winning this division and still be sellers. Billy Beane has never been one to hold on to players for too long, and always trusts his strategy. I didn’t understand why a team like the A’s would go and sign Ben Sheets for $10 million, especially after he missed all of the 2009 season due to injury. It’s been my theory since the beginning of the year that he bought Sheets purely so that they could get someone for him at the break.
Unfortunately for Beane, Sheets not only got off to a horrible start, but has given up at least five runs in his last four starts. Unless he has an incredible July, don’t look for Beane to see any returns on his investment. The other issue with the A’s, is that since they’re not going to buy, and they can’t sell off any of there pieces for value, they’ll be forced to be boring and stand pat with what they have. This will result, most likely, in a .500 season, and have Oakland fans scratching their heads.
What do you do with the Seattle Mariners? A few years ago, they thought they were one piece away from the World Series, thus resulting in the acquisition of Erik Bedard. Thus far the Orioles have netted a potential ace in Chris Tillman, a Gold Glove outfielder in Adam Jones and a switch-hitting third baseman in Josh Bell, whom they acquired from the Dodgers in exchange for George Sherrill. In return, Bedard has spent an embarrassingly long amount of time on the disabled list, and then-General Manager Bill Bivasi, was rightfully relieved of his duties.
The next year, they bring in Don Wakamatsu, he turns the club around, and they once again decide they are just pieces away from the World Series. Enter Lee and Chone Figgins. The M’s gave up some very nice prospects for Lee, but the bigger issue is the fact they currently paying their No. 9 hitter (Figgins) $30+ million. They will be able to sell off Lee at the deadline to restock their farm system, but at 24-40, it will remain a long season for the Seattle Mariners.
Up next: AL Central
Buyers and Sellers: AL East
Posted by: | CommentsThough it’s only mid-May, it’s once again, fairly obvious who the teams that will be involved with the playoffs are. Of course, their may be an underdog lying in the weeds out there. Who would have thought that after going 18-28 and firing manager Clint Hurdle, that the Rockies would be in the playoffs last year? The answer is not many.
Welcome to installment one of an in-depth six-part piece regarding where teams will be looking to go in the next few months. Who will be buyers, and who will be sellers? Who will get stuck with their expiring and contracts, and who could potentially wind up with no compensation for their big name free agents.
Preseason in the AL East, it was once again a three-horse race between the Tampa Bay Rays, the New York Yankees, and the Boston Red Sox. With the Toronto Blue Jays shipping off Roy Halladay to Philadelphia, it was obvious that they were content with not competing this year. And as for the Orioles, at a dismal 11-24, they seem to be unfortunately destined for the cellar.
The Tampa Bay Rays have arguably the best lineup one through nine in the majors. Along with efficient bench players in Reid Brignac and Willy Aybar, barring injury, the Rays should be fine down the stretch in the offensive categories. In fact, the Rays could look to pick up a decent prospect for Hank Blalock, who is currently in their Triple-A system.
The Rays starting rotation isn’t hurting for options either. Matt Garza and James Shields have been as advertised, and David Price (2.03 ERA, 48.2 IP) is having a breakout year. Add in Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann, and you have five starting pitchers with ERAs under 3.18.
The only weakness that can really be found on the Rays may be the bullpen, though it’s not nearly as bad as could be. Though they have closer Rafael Soriano and Dan Wheeler with ERAs under 2.00, but the team’s left-handed specialist Randy Choate has struggled thus far. Post All-Star break I could see the Rays looking to add bullpen help, however, if they chose to not to deal prospects, they could just as easily promote Jeremy Hellickson, similar to the way they brought up Price two years ago.
The New York Yankees sit in second place behind the Rays, and really could go a few different ways. I think that for now they will see where they are in July. Mark Teixeira is just starting to get hot and offense is never something the Yankees usually need to worry about.
The starting rotation may be the weakness for the Yankees with Javier Vazquez struggling, but Phil Hughes looks healthy and has been spectacular in the five spot. He’s been throwing like the No. 1 prospect he’s been expected to be over the last few years.
However, the Yankees have proven that they will not shy away from acquiring talent to help them in the playoffs. In the last few years, they have acquired Damaso Marte, Xavier Nady, Eric Hinske, and Jerry Hairston Jr. Though the Yanks won last year, with the big four of Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Andy Pettitte, and Mariano Rivera all getting older, they are still going to be in win-now mode.
Look for the Yankees to make a move, possibly for a starting pitcher, and maybe even a leftfielder if Curtis Granderson experiences a setback in his rehab.
The biggest question mark in the AL East has to be the Boston Red Sox. Jason Varitek has so far been the team’s best offensive players, second on the team with six home runs but with a third of the at-bats. Other than Tek, Dustin Pedroia, and Kevin Youkilis have been their usual selves; 300 BA, with homers and RBI. Jacoby Ellsbury is out for an extended amount of time which means the Sox acquisition of Jeremy Hermida looks even better now.
But it’s not the Boston line-up that has fans worried, it’s the rotation. Josh Beckett, who is coming off a huge extension, is being skipped in the rotation due to his struggles. Most recently Beckett gave up nine runs over 5.1 innings. John Lackey leads the team in wins with four, but has a 4.60 ERA and his K/9 rate has decreased greatly. Tim Wakefield has been sub-par in his starts and Daisuke Matsuzaka has shown mixed results since his return. All-in-all I think the Sox are going to have to invest in a starting pitcher at some point during the season.
One interesting proposition would be to trade Victor Martinez. That’s right, I said trade Victor Martinez. I’m sure Varitek has the fortitude to get through the season, and Martinez could be a great trade chip to shore up their rotation.
Joe Mauer’s eight-year, $184 million contract set the bar high for elite catchers in the league, and though I’m sure their have been extension discussions, I’m not sold on the Red Sox paying up $16-$20 million a year for their catcher.
I highly doubt the Sox will end up trading Martinez, but I do expect them to find a new solution to their starting pitching woes. They may have to do it quick if they want to keep up with the Yankees and Rays.
The Blue Jays are an intriguing team to look at. They have some young talent in Shaun Marcum, Travis Snider, and Aaron Hill, but I don’t see them keeping up the with the top teams in the East. Though I think they will be getting plenty of phone calls about their roster come July.
The Jays bullpen may be their biggest strength when it comes to trades. Solid bullpen arms are often the most sought after players when it comes to playoff teams, and with Kevin Gregg, Jason Frasor and Scott Downs in the pen, they should be able to get a decent return for either one of them, especially if Gregg is able to keep closing out games with success.
After dealing Halladay, I don’t think that the Jays will be dealing any more of their young arsenal of starting pitchers but with a few offseason additions, they could easily be a dark horse candidate for the playoffs in 2011, though as always the Yanks, Red Sox and Rays will be lurking.
It’s off to the cellar we go with the Baltimore Orioles. Presdient of Baseball Operations Andy MacPhail has shown how disappointed he has been with the team’s offense calling up Corey Patterson, Rhyne Hughes and Lou Montanez, and sending down budding star Nolan Reimold.
Any number of current Orioles will most likely not be with Baltimore when August comes around. Among the most popular names that will be thrown around are Miguel Tejada and Kevin Millwood, who are both in the last years of their contracts. Millwood is yet to get his first win of the season, but has pitched efficiently 3.69 ERA over eight games.
Patterson, depending on his play could be a waiver wire trade candidate, and if Garrett Atkins ever starts hitting, I would expect him to be dealt as well. The Orioles will continue to do whatever it takes to bolster their farm system and continue the rebuilding process, but you have to wonder how much longer fans can take the losing.
Check out PRO Rumors in the next couple days when I’ll discuss the happenings of the AL Central division.
Hit or Miss in the MLB Draft
Posted by: | CommentsWith the No. 1 overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft the St. Louis Rams took Sam Bradford, a quarterback from the University of Oklahoma. The Rams filled their most glaring need, but ultimately took just about the biggest risk that one can make in professional sports. By taking Bradford with the No. 1 pick, St. Louis must now work out a contract with that will earn Bradford somewhere in the range of $40 and $50 million in guaranteed money before he ever reaches the field.
I’d say baseball is a little different, but that would be a gross exaggeration. Sam Bradford will in all likeliness play week one of the 2010 regular season, but a prospect like Tim Beckham, drafted out of high school (No. 1 overall in 2008), may not see professional grass for four to six years.
For that reason Baseball talent is arguably the hardest to evaluate. Also because players can come out of high school or college, and play multiple positions. Bradford didn’t play quarterback and linebacker. If Bradford busts, the Rams don’t have to sit back and wonder if they were wrong to play him at a certain position. They just have to realize they wasted $45 million.
But if a top 10 prospect has the ability to play the outfield and throw in the mid-90s, like Nick Markakis back in 2003, the team has to decide pretty quickly on not only where they want to play him but where he will be most successful, or risk years of time and talent.
With that said, let’s take a look at some of the top draft picks over the last decade and see how they have panned out for their respective teams.
The 2000s started off kind, and patience eventually paid off eventually. Some may be surprised to know that unlike Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder, who are all playing with the teams that drafted them, San Diego Padres star Adrian Gonzalez is currently on his third.
The first baseman was drafted first overall in 2000 by the Florida Marlins and was subsequently traded to the Texas Rangers after the team felt that a wrist injury he sustained would eventually hurt his swing. After the Rangers were through with him, the Pads got the steal of a lifetime with the perennial all-star.
Some of you may be familiar with a gentleman by the name of Joe Mauer. If you’re not, you probably stumbled upon the wrong website. The Minnesota Twins did right by their city and chose the hometown kid No. 1 overall in ‘01. You could say that pick has paid some pretty substantial dividends. Since his debut in 2004, Mauer not only became the first catcher to lead the majors in batting average, but followed it up with two more batting titles and the 2009 AL MVP. The Cubs weren’t as lucky with Mark Prior, the No. 2 pick.
In 2002, the rich didn’t necessarily get richer but the Pittsburgh Pirates certainly got more like the Pirates. Unfortunately the Pirates believed that current superstars such as B.J. Upton (2nd overall) and Prince Fielder (7th overall) would present signability problems, and went with the “safe” pick in Bryan Bullington. While Upton is a success when he’s not lazy, and Fielder is one of the more exciting players to watch in baseball, Bullington is enjoying the sites in the Royals organization, his fourth team, and sports a career record of 0-5 accompanied by a plus-five ERA.
The 2004 top 10 was littered with potential but because after factoring playing time and production, it could be considered a pretty disappointing result. Some may remember Phil Humber (3rd overall), the one-time can’t miss New York Mets prospect that was sent to the Twins in the Johan Santana trade. He was DFA’d after less than a year and a half and is, like Bullington, pitching in the Royals organization. Among the other underachievers were Thomas Diamond (10th overall), Mark Rogers (5th overall) and above all, Matt Bush, the No. 1 overall pick. All of whom have failed to make the major leagues.
Like the Pirates before them, the Padres did not wish to assign huge signing bonuses to the top talent in the draft, major league regulars such as Jered Weaver, Jeff Niemann, and Stephen Drew. After a position change and multiple injuries, Bush is trying to get his career back on track in the Tampa Bay Rays system.
During the summer of 2007, I wrote an article about how unbelievably talented the 2005 draft was. Now, I’m sure of it. The No. 1 pick, Justin Upton has blossomed in to a natural ballplayer, and has proven he has a work ethic unlike his brother. And while Alex Gordon (2nd overall) and Jeff Clement (3rd overall) are struggling with playing time and health, Ryan Zimmerman (4th overall) and Ryan Braun (5th overall) have become absolute superstars from day one…not too mention Troy Tulowitzki (7th overall), Cameron Maybin (10th overall), and Andrew McCutchen (11th overall).
This one could hurt a few of you. Did you know that nine teams passed on Tim Lincecum when he came out of University of Washington? However, in fairness, the Rays were able to snag a fellow named Evan Longoria with the third pick and sign him to the most team-friendly contract in the majors, and the Dodgers were able to get themselves a future ace in Clayton Kershaw (7th overall).
Not much hurts more as an Orioles’ fan than seeing Billy Rowell (9th overall) struggle in his third straight season in High-A ball…just one pick before Lincecum was taken. Luke Hochevar was the No. 1 overall pick that year…not exactly a household name, but the young right-hander is becoming a rotation workhorse for the Kansas City Royals.
Since the 2007 draft we’ve seen some exciting baseball from recent draft picks. No one could forget the unprecedented pitching performance by David Price, No. 1 pick in 2007, in the Rays playoff run in 2008. Six players from 2008’s first round have made it to the majors already, including Brian Matusz and Gordon Beckham, while uber prep prospects like Tim Beckham (No. 1) and Eric Hosmer (No. 3) develop in the minors.
In short, the MLB draft is for the most part hit or miss. When you consider that there are only 750 players in the majors on 25-man rosters and that there were, in 2009 alone, 1,521 players drafted, it makes you realize that being a pro baseball players is pretty slim company. Alibay Barkley was the 1,521st player taken in ‘09…kind of brings a new meaning to the term Mr. Irrelevant.
It’s the ninth inning, do you know where your closer is?
Posted by: | CommentsIt may be a surprise to most baseball fans that there are just six teams in the major leagues have had the same closer since 2008. Just the Yankees, Red Sox, Royals, White Sox, Giants and Dodgers have managed to hold on to their closers for at least their third year.
What isn’t a surprise is that all six closers made their major league debuts with the teams that they are currently on. I believe this is for two reasons. First, even though a pitcher enters a save situation with at least a one-run lead, and for the most part the bases empty, it is the hardest inning in baseball to pitch.
If a middle reliever is brought in to pitch during a 5-5 tie game in the fifth inning, he knows that if he gives up the lead, his team has four innings to regain that lead. But there are only a handful of people that have the “ice water” gene that is necessary to close out games. Few can handle the pressure that it takes to be the hero when the game is on the line. Frankly, it’s just too hard to find a guy that can consistently compete at this level year after year.
Secondly, because the closer spot is one of the toughest to fill on a roster, when a team finds a good one, they are usually smart enough to lock them up.
40-year-old Mariano Rivera has been closing out Yankees’ games for 13 years, and though he only has one pitch, he’s been baffling hitters for over a decade. His contract runs out at the end of this year, and you better believe the Yankees will be ready with an extension by the time free agency starts.
The Royals, White Sox, and Giants have all locked up their stud closers, Joakim Soria, Bobby Jenks, and Brian Wilson, to long-term deals. The Dodgers would be smart to do the same with Jonathan Broxton.
Of the six, five were able to compile elite numbers in the three main categories for closers: Save percentage, Strikeouts per nine innings, and ERA.
With the exception of Jenks, the rest all had save percentages of at least 84 percent, a K/9 of 9.8 and an ERA less than three.
Expand those results to the rest of the league and you can add just five more: Joe Nathan, Heath Bell, David Aardsma, Rafael Soriano and Andrew Bailey, though only Nathan had experience closing full-time before 2009.
So while you may be upset that your flashy new closer blew a save, you have to understand that those are going to happen no matter what. Already this year, we’ve seen multiple injuries, and blown saves which have cost teams win and players their roles.
In Colorado, Huston Street has been on the disabled list since the beginning of the season, thus forcing the team to use Franklin Morales in the ninth. The 24-year-old lefty has blown two of four saves this season. In Philadelphia, the Phillies have had better luck with Ryan Madson. With Brad Lidge on the disabled list, Madson has stepped up to the plate converting on all three of his save situations.
Elsewhere around the league, closers are dropping like flies. It didn’t take long for the Jays to remove Jason Frasor from his ninth-inning duties but they proved the move was a good move since Kevin Gregg has converted all three of his opportunities and has given up only one run all year.
Mike Gonzalez and the Orioles haven’t had similar luck with their search for a closer. Gonzalez blew two of his three save opportunities and sported an 18.00 ERA when the Orioles placed him on the disabled list. Since then Jim Johnson has filled in and is also just one for three on save opportunities. Their ninth-inning woes have led them to a 2-11 record over the first two weeks.
It’s unfortunate, and above all else, it’s heartbreaking to see a ninth-inning lead lost. But in baseball when you consider that just 33 percent of closers are performing at elite levels, is it fair to expect it anyway?
Is Extended Spring Training Fair?
Posted by: | CommentsAfter C.C. Sabathia’s almost no-hitter, I felt it appropriate to discuss the reason in which he was able to start Saturday’s game. Because the New York Yankees had two off days within their first week of the season, they did not technically need a fifth starter until Thursday, April 15.
Phil Hughes beat out Joba Chamberlain for the fifth spot in the rotation, but it doesn’t seem like they were confident in him enough to take the hill in the first week of the season. Yankees Manager Joe Girardi said that Hughes pitching in two extended spring training games would allow the young right hander to stretch out and would effectively limit his innings.
For those not familiar with extended spring training, they are controlled games in which the manager can set up different situations for pitchers, not unlike an intra-squad game. For example, if Hughes had thrown 30 pitches in the second inning of his most recent extended spring start, the team can end the second inning so that he isn’t used as much.
However, Hughes is able to stay on the active roster all the while, and can be used in emergency situations. This is just one example, but is it fair, in this situation that Hughes can pitch, though it doesn’t count against his ERA, WHIP, or innings pitched?
Should teams be able to keep players active? If they want pitchers to get extra work, should they have to go to the minors and lose an option?
PRO Rumors: Dice-K, Buchholz, Phils Closer, Lilly
Posted by: | CommentsRehab stints mean big decisions are coming for teams…
- Tony Lee of the New England Sports Network says the Red Sox will have a big decision coming up. It seemed that Clay Buchholz would have a rotation spot locked up, but he has yet to wow the organization. With Daisuke Matsuzaka throwing five scoreless innings in Triple-A Pawtucket, the Sox will have to decide who the odd man out is.
- Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer noted that Phillies reliever Brad Lidge couldn’t finish an inning in his Single-A rehab start at Clearwater. Ryan Madson, the Phils’ closer for the moment, is 1-for-1 in save opportunities and will provide some trouble for Lidge when the time comes for him to return to the bullpen.
- Ted Lilly won’t be back anytime soon according to Gordon Wittenmeyer of the Chicago Sun Times. The Cubs starter experienced back soreness which will delay his rehab start until at least Wednesday. The Cubs are 2-4 after the first week of baseball and could use the starting pitching, however Manager Lou Piniella says Lilly will not be rushed back.
PRO Rumors: Hill, Roberts, Ichiro
Posted by: | CommentsHere are some midday links to get you through the grind…
- Mike Rutsey of the Toronto Sun says that Aaron Hill is itching to play again. Hill hasn’t played since April 7 when he tweaked his hamstring. He has since been held out of four games, including a series sweep of the Baltimore Orioles this weekend.
- MASN’s Steve Melewski says that Brian Roberts is headed to the disabled list retroactive to April 10. The speedy second baseman strained an abdominal muscle sliding into second during an attempted steal in Friday‘s hope opener. The Orioles recalled INF Justin Turner from Triple-A Norfolk to fill the roster spot.
- We’ve all heard the rumors that Seattle Mariners outfielder Ichiro Suzuki can do whatever he wants to do on a baseball diamond. But John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle wonders if it’s time that the Mariners make him prove it. With a weak 3-4-5 lineup, is it time that Ichiro show the power he’s been boasting about?
