Recently, I was watching the Giants and Dodger battle each other with Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw facing each other.

Lincecum went 8 innings while allowing six hits and a run while striking out six. He was saddled with a ND (no decision) as Kershaw picked up the victory going 8 innings while allowing three hits no earned runs and striking out nine.

After watching these two go back-and-forth all night matching each other pitch for pitch, I started thinking back to when these two were drafted in 2006 just three spots apart. Though the Dodgers have their reasons for picking Kershaw seventh overall compared to Lincecum at number ten, I began to ask myself what were teams thinking when they passed on these two pitchers that have become two of the best pitchers in the game, just five years removed from the draft.

In case you have forgotten the first ten picks from that year, lets revisit them.

TEAM	PLAYER	POSITION
Kansas City	Luke Hochevar	RHP
Colorado	Greg Reynolds	RHP
Tampa Bay	Evan Longoria	3B
Pittsburgh	Brad Lincoln	RHP
Seattle	Brandon Morrow	RHP
Detroit	Andrew Miller	LHP
Los Angeles	Clayton Kershaw	LHP
Cincinnati	Drew Stubbs	OF
Baltimore	Bill Rowell	3B
San Francisco	Tim Lincecum	RHP

Looking at the just the first ten picks, I began to ask myself who Bill Rowell is and why in the world the Orioles drafted him before Lincecum.  It’s easy for me to say this now, as I have seen how magnificently Lincecum has pitched and still wondering who Rowell is.

In football, the term “Monday morning quarter backing” was used as coaches and players would sit around and talk about what they would have done differently if they were the quarterback. In essence, it is a person who passes judgment on and criticizes someone or something after the event.

In the scouting world, fans and media members are able to sit back and “Monday morning quarter back” a scout’s decision years down the line. But scouts are forced to make a decision on a player based on a small helping of games they have watched and maybe a video of a few more games. Needless to say, for every Clayton Kershaw drafted, there are ten players like Bill Rowell that never turn out how they were supposed to. Knowing what we know now, I think it is safe to say that the Orioles would love to have a mulligan on their first round pick.

With that, lets take a look at the players who were drafted before and after Kershaw and Lincecum and what type of success they have had.

1.Luke Hochevar was originally a supplemental pick of the Dodgers the year prior (40th overall), and agreed to a $2.98mm before he and his agent Scott Boras decided against taking the deal. He ended up signing for a guaranteed $5.3 million, with a bonus of $3.5 million a year later as the number one pick. Hochevar quickly went up the ranks as he hit the majors in September of 2007. Hochevar has at times shown flashes of what the Royals expected him to be as the number one overall pick, but has really been nothing more than a back of the rotation pitcher posting a career 5.31 era.

2. Greg Reynolds started out in the Colorado system with a fastball velocity around 90-91 (mph) with a plus curveball and plus changeup and possessed very good command. Reynolds has battled injuries his entire career as he has only pitched in 23 big league games where he owns a 7.51 era. Colorado went with a pitcher with this selection as they had selected infielders in the first rounds of the previous three drafts.

3. Evan Longoria who joined the big league club in 2008, won the AL ROY award that year where he hit .272 with 27 home runs with 85 RBIs. He has also made three All Star teams, won two gold gloves and two silver slugger awards while establishing himself as the third baseman of the future for the Rays.

4. In his first professional season, Brad Lincoln pitched a total of 24 innings before being shut down and having Tommy John surgery. Lincoln coming into the draft, was one of the top (if not the top) pitching prospects in the draft. Lincoln finally made his debut last season where he posted a 6.66 era in 52 innings for the Pirates.  This season, Lincoln has pitched out of the bullpen with some success as he has posted a 3.53 era in 35.2 innings.

5. Brandon Morrow who possesses a fastball, splitter and slider, spent less than a season in the minors before being called up to Seattle in April of 2007. In three seasons with Seattle, Morrow had a 3.96 era. Morrow was then traded to the Blue Jays in 2010 for Brandon League where he has posted a 4.81 era since joining the Jays.

6. If anyone was considered to be the can’t miss prospect of the draft, Andrew Miller may get the award. He possessed with a high-90s fastball and a major league ready slider and just so happened to be a lefty. Miller went 13-2 with a 2.11 era for North Carolina prior to the draft and slipped to this spot due to high salary demands. Miller eventually signed with the Tigers for $5.45mm. After the 2007 season, the Tigers traded him to the Marlins as a key player in the deal that landed masher Miguel Cabrera. Miller has not had much success up to this point in his career where he has compiled a 21-29 record with a 5.79 era in the big leagues.

7.Clayton Kershaw was a young lefty coming out of high school equipped with a fastball, changeup, curveball and slider. Kershaw quickly drew comparisons to another Dodger lefty Sandy Koufax once he was drafted. In 2008, Kershaw joined LA and showed flashes of becoming a dominant pitcher while also experiencing growing pains as he posted a 4.26 era. Since then, Kershaw has posted era’s of 2.79, 2.91 and 2.36. He also appears set to earn his first CY award (yes a little premature but I’m calling it. Take that to the bank!) and has officially established himself as one of the best pitchers in all of baseball at the young age of twenty-three.

8. Drew Stubbs entered the draft, ranked as one of the best athletes and defensive players in the draft with speed being a big part of his game. He got off to a slow start in rookie ball hitting only .252 with 19 stolen bases but quickly turned things around where he has become one of the top center fielders in the game today.

9. Bill Rowell can be lumped into the group of overhyped players that never panned out. Rowell was probably more of a mid first round pick late first rounder or a supplemental first round pick (Thanks Joseph for catching that).  Rowell a third baseman, has spent his entire career in the minor leagues where he received only a sniff at Double-A ball. Besides the 42 games he spent at Double-A where he hit .227, Rowell has spent the rest of his career in the lower levels. If you are wondering, the Orioles would definitely take a mulligan on this one.

10. You are not seeing this wrong, Bill Rowell was drafted before Tim Lincecum. Lincecum was listed in pre-draft boards as going number one, all the way down to going number fifteen.  Lincecum who is better known as the “freak”, spent part of the 2006 and 2007 seasons in the minors where he posted a combined 1.01 era. He has definitely lived up to the hype that followed him with his minor league numbers, where he has gone onto win two CY awards (2008,2009) and has been selected to four All-Star teams. In five seasons, Lincecum has posted a 2.97 era and has become one of the top pitchers along with fellow draftee Clayton Kershaw in the game.

Monday morning quarter backing scouts is easy to do five years down the road. We know how much success they are going to have. Of course I would take Kershaw over Marrow and Lincoln. But what separates the great scouts from the average scouts, are the ones that can pick the Lincecums year-after-year in the draft without wasting a pick on a Rowell type player.

Image taken by Keith Allison and used under the Creative Common License Agreement.