Hit or Miss in the MLB Draft
ByWith the No. 1 overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft the St. Louis Rams took Sam Bradford, a quarterback from the University of Oklahoma. The Rams filled their most glaring need, but ultimately took just about the biggest risk that one can make in professional sports. By taking Bradford with the No. 1 pick, St. Louis must now work out a contract with that will earn Bradford somewhere in the range of $40 and $50 million in guaranteed money before he ever reaches the field.
I’d say baseball is a little different, but that would be a gross exaggeration. Sam Bradford will in all likeliness play week one of the 2010 regular season, but a prospect like Tim Beckham, drafted out of high school (No. 1 overall in 2008), may not see professional grass for four to six years.
For that reason Baseball talent is arguably the hardest to evaluate. Also because players can come out of high school or college, and play multiple positions. Bradford didn’t play quarterback and linebacker. If Bradford busts, the Rams don’t have to sit back and wonder if they were wrong to play him at a certain position. They just have to realize they wasted $45 million.
But if a top 10 prospect has the ability to play the outfield and throw in the mid-90s, like Nick Markakis back in 2003, the team has to decide pretty quickly on not only where they want to play him but where he will be most successful, or risk years of time and talent.
With that said, let’s take a look at some of the top draft picks over the last decade and see how they have panned out for their respective teams.
The 2000s started off kind, and patience eventually paid off eventually. Some may be surprised to know that unlike Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder, who are all playing with the teams that drafted them, San Diego Padres star Adrian Gonzalez is currently on his third.
The first baseman was drafted first overall in 2000 by the Florida Marlins and was subsequently traded to the Texas Rangers after the team felt that a wrist injury he sustained would eventually hurt his swing. After the Rangers were through with him, the Pads got the steal of a lifetime with the perennial all-star.
Some of you may be familiar with a gentleman by the name of Joe Mauer. If you’re not, you probably stumbled upon the wrong website. The Minnesota Twins did right by their city and chose the hometown kid No. 1 overall in ‘01. You could say that pick has paid some pretty substantial dividends. Since his debut in 2004, Mauer not only became the first catcher to lead the majors in batting average, but followed it up with two more batting titles and the 2009 AL MVP. The Cubs weren’t as lucky with Mark Prior, the No. 2 pick.
In 2002, the rich didn’t necessarily get richer but the Pittsburgh Pirates certainly got more like the Pirates. Unfortunately the Pirates believed that current superstars such as B.J. Upton (2nd overall) and Prince Fielder (7th overall) would present signability problems, and went with the “safe” pick in Bryan Bullington. While Upton is a success when he’s not lazy, and Fielder is one of the more exciting players to watch in baseball, Bullington is enjoying the sites in the Royals organization, his fourth team, and sports a career record of 0-5 accompanied by a plus-five ERA.
The 2004 top 10 was littered with potential but because after factoring playing time and production, it could be considered a pretty disappointing result. Some may remember Phil Humber (3rd overall), the one-time can’t miss New York Mets prospect that was sent to the Twins in the Johan Santana trade. He was DFA’d after less than a year and a half and is, like Bullington, pitching in the Royals organization. Among the other underachievers were Thomas Diamond (10th overall), Mark Rogers (5th overall) and above all, Matt Bush, the No. 1 overall pick. All of whom have failed to make the major leagues.
Like the Pirates before them, the Padres did not wish to assign huge signing bonuses to the top talent in the draft, major league regulars such as Jered Weaver, Jeff Niemann, and Stephen Drew. After a position change and multiple injuries, Bush is trying to get his career back on track in the Tampa Bay Rays system.
During the summer of 2007, I wrote an article about how unbelievably talented the 2005 draft was. Now, I’m sure of it. The No. 1 pick, Justin Upton has blossomed in to a natural ballplayer, and has proven he has a work ethic unlike his brother. And while Alex Gordon (2nd overall) and Jeff Clement (3rd overall) are struggling with playing time and health, Ryan Zimmerman (4th overall) and Ryan Braun (5th overall) have become absolute superstars from day one…not too mention Troy Tulowitzki (7th overall), Cameron Maybin (10th overall), and Andrew McCutchen (11th overall).
This one could hurt a few of you. Did you know that nine teams passed on Tim Lincecum when he came out of University of Washington? However, in fairness, the Rays were able to snag a fellow named Evan Longoria with the third pick and sign him to the most team-friendly contract in the majors, and the Dodgers were able to get themselves a future ace in Clayton Kershaw (7th overall).
Not much hurts more as an Orioles’ fan than seeing Billy Rowell (9th overall) struggle in his third straight season in High-A ball…just one pick before Lincecum was taken. Luke Hochevar was the No. 1 overall pick that year…not exactly a household name, but the young right-hander is becoming a rotation workhorse for the Kansas City Royals.
Since the 2007 draft we’ve seen some exciting baseball from recent draft picks. No one could forget the unprecedented pitching performance by David Price, No. 1 pick in 2007, in the Rays playoff run in 2008. Six players from 2008’s first round have made it to the majors already, including Brian Matusz and Gordon Beckham, while uber prep prospects like Tim Beckham (No. 1) and Eric Hosmer (No. 3) develop in the minors.
In short, the MLB draft is for the most part hit or miss. When you consider that there are only 750 players in the majors on 25-man rosters and that there were, in 2009 alone, 1,521 players drafted, it makes you realize that being a pro baseball players is pretty slim company. Alibay Barkley was the 1,521st player taken in ‘09…kind of brings a new meaning to the term Mr. Irrelevant.
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