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Rumors for November, 2009

Of the 18 players selected to for the Silver Slugger award, for being the best hitting player at their position, only three of them had award bonuses their contracts:

2009 National League Silver Sluggers

Position Player, Team Bonus
P Carlos Zambrano, Cubs none
C Brian McCann, Braves none
1B Albert Pujols, Cardinals $50,000
2B Chase Utley, Phillies $50,000
3B Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals none
SS Hanley Ramirez, Marlins none
OF Ryan Braun, Brewers none
OF Andre Ethier, Dodgers none
OF Matt Kemp, Dodgers none

2009 American League Silver Sluggers

Position Player, Team Bonus
DH Adam Lind, Blue Jays none
C Joe Mauer, Twins none
1B Mark Teixiera, Yankees none
2B Aaron Hill, Blue Jays none
3B Evan Longoria, Rays none
SS Derek Jeter, Yankees none
OF Torii Hunter, Angels $100,000
OF Jason Bay, Red Sox none
OF Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners none

It’s a great award to put on the mantle, but it’s a bonus that very few put in their contract.  I was hoping that Zambrano would have an award clause in his contract for his bat.  Hopefully he can negotiate it for 2013.  The Silver Slugger is not respected in the contractual sense compared to its defensive counterpart – The Gold Glove.  Even Ichiro’s crazy contract of round trips, personal assistants and housing allowance or Braun’s contract of having a suite for all home games did not include an award for something they are paid to do – hit.

In the future, I would like to see a Silver Slugger award for an American League pitcher and the best NL and AL pinch hitter.  Pinch hitters like Matt Stairs should get an award for doing what may be the hardest job in baseball – come off the bench and hit.

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Yahoo Sports is reporting that the Texas Rangers are looking at at Vladimir Guerrero.  Guerrero wants a deal similar to what Bobby Abreu just signed with the Los Angeleas Angels – 2 year, $18 million.

Between 2005-2008 while with the Angels and not including his injury shortened 2009 season where he hit 15 home runs in 100 games, Guerrero has cost them almost $500,000 per home run.  This is what a typical MLB slugger would be making.  Yahoo thinks that he’ll get a 1 year deal between $3-5 million.  Are they saying that Guerrero will only hit 6-10 home runs?  If any time can get him for $3-5 million then go for it.  He may not get Abreu money, but he’ll hit 20 home runs for you.  On a conservative cost basis of $300,000 per HR, that will net him at least a $6 million per year contract.  I say he goes for at least $7 million a season with a 2 year minimum.  Oh yeah…  he’ll put people in the seats too.

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I watched a quick ESPN video from this morning about the National League’s To Do list.  Here it is in 30 seconds or less.

Braves:  Looking for right-handed slugger to complement Brian McCann and Chipper Jones.  They may trade pitcher Javier Vazquez.

Mets:  Need #2 starter behind Johan Santana

Marlins:  Seek offers for Dan Uggla and Jorge Cantu

Cardinals:  Want to re-sign Matt Holliday, but he may be too pricey.

Cubs:  Have a need for starting pitching

Brewers:  Need starting pitcher behind Yovani Gallardo.  Two possibilities include John Lackey or Jarrod Washburn.

Reds & Astros & Pirates:  No money.

Dodgers:  Need starting rotation help, but divorce will hurt.

Rockies:  Need to replace pitcher Jason Marquis

Giants:  MLB Executives think they will make a play for a slugger like Jason Bay or Matt Holliday

Padres:  May put Adrian Gonzalez on the market, and if so it will be the “talk of the Winter”.

Phillies:  Need replacement at third base since Pedro Feliz is gone.  Mark DeRosa will be a good candidate.

As expected starting pitcher Tim Hudson has signed a 3 year, $28 million contract to stay home in Atlanta.  He had $12 million player option ot stay in Atlanta for 2010, but decided to sign a longer term deal.  Essentially, he signed an extension of 2 years $16 million with a possibility of a 4th year at $9 million.  Here’s my math:

If Hudson did absolutely nothing:

2010:  $12 million
Now that Hudson re-signed:

2010: $9 million

2011:  $9 million

2012:  $9 million

2013:  At least $1 million, maybe $8 million more if the Braves pick up the team option for a  total of $9 million.

Net:  $28M – $12M = $16 million future dollars that he’s guaranteed.

Hudson could have played out the 2010 season and go job hunting in Winter of 2010, but he has earned over $50 million in his career and now he has the peace of mind to play in front of his family for a few more years.

Is $9 million a season justifiable?

Not including the 2008 and 2009 seasons, Hudson was very consistent and earning anywhere between $400-500K per win.  Given that average,  he would be expected to win about 18 games at $9 million per season in 2010 and beyond.  That’s a feat that will be very difficult for any pitcher to achieve.  In my opinion the Braves may have overpaid somebody that would have stayed for a little less.

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Nov
12

Red Sox interested in Matsui?

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ESPNBoston.com has reported that the Red Sox may be interested in Hideki Matsui as their everyday left fielder in the event they cannot re-sign Jason Bay.  This brings up a few questions:  Matsui hasn’t played left field since June 2008, so why consider him?  Is there interest in Matsui as a designated hitter?  If so, then what will happen to David Ortiz?

Matsui, 36 on Opening Day 2010, is coming off a 4 year, $52 million contract.  Matsui as a full-time left fielder will be a liability to any team, but luckily he had a “Godzilla” year in 2009 with 28 home runs and 90 RBI’s and a World Series MVP to use as leverage.   The free agent power hitters have not signed yet, so any guess is pure speculation.  To be conservative, If Matsui can hit 20 home runs, at a cost per home run of a modest $300,000, that would dictate a $6 million a year contract.  That’s on the low-end of the scale.  I could see a 3-4 year contract at $8 million per season that can increase to $9-11 million per season based on escalators of games played.  His past injuries will make a few teams weary to spend that much money on a 36-year-old.

If Matsui can prove to be an everyday left fielder, and the team does not sign Bay, it could be a good leverage for next year’s negotiations with David Ortiz.  Ortiz will has one more year left on his 4 year $52 million contract.  The Red Sox have a $12.5 million team option for the 2011 season, and if Ortiz can up his batting average, be consistent on his power and have a good April and May of 2010 you can expect to see him in a Red Sox uniform for 2011 with Matsui continuing to play left field.  Otherwise, Matsui will inherit the full-time DH position in 2011 and Ortiz will be job hunting next Winter.

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Nov
11

Salary arbitration for dummies

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ESPN did a nice article about salary arbitration, the 1990 labor agreement, the Super 2’s and Cub’s infielder Mike Fontenot getting the last spot of arbitration today.

Salary arbitration is a term you hear every year, but very few tend to understand what it is.  In a broad sense, it’s a player’s right to be compensated more accordingly based on his ability, leadership and performance. In the event that the player and the club do not see eye-to-eye, the case goes in front of a three person arbitration panel where  they will review the dispute and settle the salary based on statistics of the player. According to MLB.com, since 1974, and including 2006, arbitrators have ruled on behalf of the players 199 times and clubs 269 times so it’s in the player’s best interest to negotiate a deal before going to arbitration

All players with at least 3 years of Major League service time but less than 6 years are eligible for arbitration.  Some teams understand the worth and sign these players to a long-term deal such as the Cleveland Indians phenom C.C. Sabathia’s deal in 2002 (4 year, $9.5 million).  This deal will provide the security for the player early in their career, but also give the club a great value compared to getting a similarly productive player but with more service time.  Unfortunately some players either are not given that luxury of a long-term deal, or they want to go year-to-year and hope for a big money contract after their sixth year of service such as San Francisco’s Tim Lincecum.  Other Super 2’s this year include Pittsburgh’s Jeff Karstens, Houston’s Hunter Pence, Texas pitcher Dustin Nippert, Cub’s pitcher Tom Gorzelanny and Orioles pitcher Matt Albers.  Those that are eligible will file in mid-January, and those that do not settle will go in front of the arbitration panel.  The panel will look over each side and make a choice of the salary expected by the player or the salary submitted by the club.

In the case of Mike Fontenot, he was part of a group called the Super 2’s where the top 17% of players (in ML service) with at least 2 years of service, but less than 3 can be eligible for salary arbitration.  Fontenot had 2 years and 139 days of service.  The unfortunate victim includes Mark Reynolds of the Arizona Diamondbacks who had 2 years and 138 days of service so he missed the Super 2 cutoff.  He hit 44 home runs and drove in 102 RBI’s and will probably be offered a contract above the MLB minimum salary of $400,000 but nowhere in the millions had he been eligible for arbitration or free agency.  A consistent performance of 40+ home runs a year can yield a $15+ million contract per year.

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Nov
11

Varitek exercises player option

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Following up with yesterday’s story, Jason Varitek exercised his $3 million player option with the Boston Red Sox.  He caught in 108 games in 2009, but most of them were before the July arrival of Victor Martinez.  Boston’s General Manager, Theo Epstein has indicated that Martinez will be the everyday catcher for 2010.

It’s good news for the Red Sox pitching staff that Varitek will be back next season.  He’s been highly praised for his ability to call games, and being the club house leader he is, he’ll transfer that knowledge to Martinez.

In the back of Varitek’s head, you can’t help but think that he’s pissed off at agent Scott Boras for not making him go through arbitration after the 2008 season.

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We were recognized by ESPN’s SportsNation as Site of the Day – November 11, 2009.  Thanks to @brandon_todd and his blog www.thebirdzilla.com for getting SportsNation to recognize us.

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The National League 2009 Rawling’s Gold Glove winners were announced today and with that $175,000 in bonus checks were paid out to 4 players – Yadier Molina, Adrian Gonzalez, Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino.  It’s not surprising that Bourne and Kemp do not have Gold Glove bonuses, but the reason is similar to Adam Jones since they both are young have no contract leverage.  You can expect that these bonuses will be written into future long-term contracts.

Position Player, Team Bonus
P Adam Wainwright, Cardinals none
C Yadier Molina, Cardinals $50,000
1B Adrian Gonzalez, Padres $50,000
2B Orlando Hudson, Dodgers unknown
3B Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals none
SS Jimmy Rollins, Phillies $50,000
OF Shane Victorino, Phillies $25,000
OF Michael Bourn, Astros none
OF Matt Kemp, Dodgers none

Looking over Adam Wainwright’s contract, I noticed that he has a $250,000 Cy Young bonus and multiple clauses that would automatically vest his options should he win the award, but his contract does not have any Gold Glove bonuses.  Since Greg Maddux had an impressive 16 Gold Gloves, it would be fun for owners and agents to have put in a Gold Glove bonus for all of their pitchers as a gag incentive.

6 of the winners came for 3 playoff teams – the Phillies, Dodgers and Cardinals.  Chicks dig the long ball, but defense gets your season extended.  I’ll take the latter.

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Outfielder Ken Griffey Jr. has signed a 1 year deal with the Seattle Mariners.  The deal is said to be similar to his 2009 deal where he had a base salary of $2 million in addition to $1.15 million in incentives.  Most of the incentives were based on attendance figures.  In 2009, Griffey hit 19 home runs, drove in 57 runs, but hit .214.

The Mariner’s play on this decision is largely attendance based.  They figure having Griffey on the roster will bring in more fans.  They have franchise names such as Ichiro Suzuki and Felix Hernandez, but the $3 million per year for Griffey is a steal to get a few more people through the gates, to buy their concessions and their souvenirs.  They drew almost 2.2 million people to Safeco Park in 2009.  A small decrease from the 2.3 million that attended in 2008, but that was largely based on the poor economy.  They figure the return on investment with Griffey will outweigh the $3 million.

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