Should Billy Wagner retire?

Let’s help Wagner create a list of criteria to consider during the off season:

• He can still play and throw in the upper 90’s.
• 15 saves away from 400 (currently at 385) – this will pad the Hall of Fame resume.
• He may not get the closer roll that he wants if he returns in 2010.
• He does not have a World Series ring.
• He’s walking away from money.

The Baseball Hall of Fame may be considered the pinnacle of every baseball player’s dream. I often wish that there is a hall of fame for the working class – one where I can get a plaque, a speech and phone number extension retirement ceremony. In Wagner’s, case there is no magic number of saves to get one into the Hall of Fame. The HoF committee hasn’t been consistent as to what the exact criteria for a reliever is to get in. However, it won’t hurt if Wagner could surpass the 400 save milestone and accumulate a few more seasons of 20+ saves.

So what’s Wagner worth? In his trade between the Met’s & Red Sox, he specifically asked that the team option for 2010 be voided in order for his no trade clause to be voided. What is a team option? A team option is an agreement in a contract that says that the team can extend the player’s services for X-number of years for a prearranged set of money. In this case, if Wagner was still on the Mets, they could have said that they’ll keep his services for 2010 at the cost of $8 million. With this said, Wagner either did not want to be apart of the Red Sox as a setup man for $8 million or he felt that the could find employment elsewhere that would guarantee more than $8 million.

Cost per save
(MLB save leader in bold)

	2007	2008	2009
Trevor Hoffman	166667	178571	202703
Mariano Rivera	350000	384615	340909
Billy Wagner	308824	388889	0 saves
Jose Valverde	42553	106818	320000
F. Rodriguez	175000	161290	352381
Brian Fuentes	175000	168333	177083

Mariano Rivera signed a 3 year, $45 million contract for the 2008-2010 seasons (roughly $15 million per season). He’s recorded 39 and 44 saves in 2008 & 2009 respectively. Through 2/3 of his contract, he’s earned about $180,723 per save. Not bad considering he works only 1 inning. Wagner, in contrast, made $10.5 million each season f0r 2006, 2007 & 2008. He saved 40, 34 and 27 saves in each of those respective seasons. Wagner earned $311,881 per save.

Wagner is in the late stage of career so he can’t expect Francisco Rodriguez money ($37 million over 3 years), and he’s not Rivera. A similar situation from last year could play out. The Padres decided to part ways with Trevor Hoffman after the 2008 season. However, he proved to everybody that he still has what it takes. He saved 37 games in 2009 on an estimated $7.5 million (with incentives) 1 year contract. Hoffman resigned with Milwaukee for the 2010 season for $8 million with a mutual option for 2011 for $8.5 million.

Given that Wagner had elbow surgery in 2008 and the fact that his saves have been decreasing over the last few full seasons, he may not get money similar to Rivera or Hoffman. My guess is that if Wagner is to return, he’ll go to a World Series contender and ask for a 2 year contract that will pay in the neighborhood of $7-8 million per season with a team option for a 3rd season that may be in the neighborhood of $9-10 million. He’ll be offered 1 year contracts from several teams, but this would be foolish if he were to accept them. A 2 year contract will guarantee Wagner at least another $14 million over the next 2 seasons which is more then the possible 1 and done year had his existing option been exercised.